What does the US Labor Market and Income Expectations table measure?

This table measures consumer expectations regarding job security, the likelihood of finding a new job, future nationwide unemployment, and expected household income growth over the coming year based on the New York Fed survey.

How frequently is this survey published and what is the historical coverage?

The Survey of Consumer Expectations labor market module is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with data series beginning in 2013.

What specific probabilities and metrics are available in the table?

Available metrics include the probability of losing a job, leaving a job voluntarily, finding a job within three months, expecting higher nationwide unemployment, and projected one-year ahead income growth across various statistical percentiles.

How does this survey differ from actual employment figures released by the BLS?

While BLS reports track historical employment levels and unemployment rates, this survey measures forward-looking consumer sentiment and anxiety, offering early signals about labor market tightness before they appear in official government statistics.

US Labor Market and Income Expectations

Name: US Labor Market and Income Expectations
Creator: NY FED (Survey of Consumer Expectations)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

US monthly labor market and income expectations from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Source: NY FED (Survey of Consumer Expectations)Last updated: Sep 21, 2026, 14:13Curated by Bui Thanh PhucAbout this data ↓

Indicator	08-2026	07-2026	06-2026	05-2026	04-2026	03-2026	02-2026	01-2026	12-2025	11-2025	10-2025	09-2025	08-2025	07-2025	06-2025	05-2025	04-2025	03-2025	02-2025	01-2025	12-2024	11-2024	10-2024	09-2024	08-2024	07-2024	06-2024	05-2024	04-2024	03-2024	02-2024	01-2024	12-2023	11-2023	10-2023	09-2023	08-2023
Probability of losing job in the next 12 months	13.84	14.18	14.14	15.12	14.59	14.39	13.84	14.82	15.2	13.76	14.03	14.85	14.48	14.43	13.96	14.83	15.29	15.68	14.1	14.21	11.91	13.52	12.96	13.33	13.32	14.27	14.78	12.36	15.12	15.73	14.45	11.77	13.37	13.63	12.66	12.37	13.83
Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months	19.49	18.56	17.27	20.75	18.17	18.25	15.93	18.65	17.47	17.68	18.78	20.69	18.95	18.97	18.79	18.26	18.18	18	17.6	19.88	18.2	20.21	20.52	20.36	19.09	20.7	20.47	19.61	19.36	20.64	19.48	17.68	20.37	19.61	18.2	18.16	18.91
Probability of finding a job in 3 months if lost	45.42	46.23	44.88	43.72	46.02	45.85	43.96	45.57	43.13	47.35	46.77	47.45	44.91	50.7	49.59	50.74	49.23	51.11	51.21	51.54	50.24	54.1	56	52.73	52.31	52.5	53.35	52.24	50.88	51.17	52.53	54.21	55.93	55.23	56.57	56.47	55.71
Probability of higher Nationwide unemployment in 1 year	44.42	42.78	41.7	43.17	43.91	43.5	39.88	41.89	41.77	42.07	42.54	41.11	39.12	37.37	39.71	40.76	44.06	44.04	39.44	34.03	34.63	35.03	34.51	36.18	37.72	36.56	37.59	38.65	37.17	36.15	36.14	37.22	37.02	38.44	38.58	40.06	38.54
ONE-YEAR AHEAD INCOME GROWTH EXPECTATIONS4
Median	2.85	2.83	2.84	2.71	2.71	2.37	2.54	2.7	2.52	2.58	2.62	2.45	2.54	2.59	2.45	2.68	2.54	2.79	2.98	2.97	2.83	3	2.81	2.79	2.86	2.71	2.97	2.7	2.71	2.79	2.76	2.83	2.45	2.73	2.83	2.97	2.91
25th percentile	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
75th percentile	3.79	4.48	4.12	4	4.12	3.55	4.2	4.25	3.91	4.38	4.45	4.27	4	4.39	4	4.25	4.7	4.53	5.17	4.71	4.55	5.34	5	4.24	4.96	4.72	5.43	4.56	4.82	4.95	5.04	5.08	4	4.36	4.18	4.82	4.14
Mean point expectation	2.85	2.8	2.85	2.92	2.94	2.53	2.94	2.94	2.98	2.84	2.83	2.92	2.91	2.78	2.9	2.78	2.81	2.96	3.14	3.01	2.94	3.09	3.09	3	3.18	3.07	3.03	3.09	3	3.01	3.08	3.11	3.05	3.03	3.03	3.05	2.97

Latest reading

Probability of losing job in the next 12 months stood at 13.84 % probability in Aug 2026. That is −0.3 pp from Jul 2026 and −0.6 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jun 2013 to Aug 2026. Source: NY FED (Survey of Consumer Expectations).

Latest: 13.84 % probability; Aug 2026
vs previous period: −0.3 pp; Jul 2026
vs a year earlier: −0.6 pp

About this data

US monthly labor market and income expectations from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. This dataset tracks perceived probabilities of job loss, voluntary job departure, finding a new job, nationwide unemployment changes, and household income growth. The series begins in 2013 and provides forward-looking insights into worker confidence and labor market tightness. Responses are broken down by median, mean, and dispersion percentiles.

Frequently asked questions

What does the US Labor Market and Income Expectations table measure?: This table measures consumer expectations regarding job security, the likelihood of finding a new job, future nationwide unemployment, and expected household income growth over the coming year based on the New York Fed survey.
How frequently is this survey published and what is the historical coverage?: The Survey of Consumer Expectations labor market module is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with data series beginning in 2013.
What specific probabilities and metrics are available in the table?: Available metrics include the probability of losing a job, leaving a job voluntarily, finding a job within three months, expecting higher nationwide unemployment, and projected one-year ahead income growth across various statistical percentiles.
How does this survey differ from actual employment figures released by the BLS?: While BLS reports track historical employment levels and unemployment rates, this survey measures forward-looking consumer sentiment and anxiety, offering early signals about labor market tightness before they appear in official government statistics.