Chicago Fed Real-Time Labor Market Index
US Chicago Fed real-time labor market indicators and unemployment forecasts.
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor Flows3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Layoff and other separation rate | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.07 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.06 | 2.05 | 2.07 | 2.08 | 2.09 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 2.06 | 2.08 | 2.06 | 2.04 | 2.05 | 2.04 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.05 | 2.06 | 2.05 | 2.04 | 2.02 | 2.01 | 2.02 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 2 | 2.01 | 1.99 | 2 | |
| Unemployed job finding rate | 45.75 | 45.51 | 45.37 | 44.17 | 45.4 | 45.32 | 44.62 | 45.69 | 44.56 | 45.02 | 44.37 | 44.56 | 44.19 | 44.98 | 45.29 | 45.37 | 45.75 | 46.88 | 46.46 | 47.25 | 47.26 | 47.02 | 47.96 | 47.01 | 46.43 | 46.61 | 47.43 | 47.81 | 48.87 | 49.19 | 50.16 | 51.11 | 51.04 | 50.19 | 49.57 | 50.57 | 50.73 | |
| Flow-consistent unemployment rate | 4.25 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 4.48 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.41 | 4.29 | 4.43 | 4.41 | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 4.18 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.15 | 4.2 | 4.08 | 4.19 | 4.23 | 4.22 | 4.14 | 4.09 | 3.96 | 3.92 | 3.87 | 3.74 | 3.74 | 3.83 | 3.9 | 3.79 | 3.8 | |
| Real-time contribution to unemployment rate change4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hiring, preliminary | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0 | -0 | -0.01 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Layoffs, preliminary | -0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | -0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hiring, final | -0 | -0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Layoffs, final | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.01 | -0 | 0 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-month-ahead unemployment rate forecast percentiles — preliminary5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16th percentile | 3.99 | 3.95 | 3.99 | 4.19 | 4.18 | 4.09 | 4.32 | 4.14 | 4.21 | 4.41 | 4.16 | 4.07 | 4.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25th percentile | 4.04 | 4 | 4.04 | 4.24 | 4.23 | 4.14 | 4.37 | 4.19 | 4.26 | 4.46 | 4.26 | 4.16 | 4.23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 50th percentile (median) | 4.13 | 4.1 | 4.13 | 4.33 | 4.32 | 4.23 | 4.46 | 4.28 | 4.35 | 4.56 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 75th percentile | 4.22 | 4.18 | 4.22 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.32 | 4.55 | 4.37 | 4.44 | 4.64 | 4.62 | 4.53 | 4.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 84th percentile | 4.27 | 4.23 | 4.27 | 4.47 | 4.46 | 4.37 | 4.6 | 4.42 | 4.49 | 4.69 | 4.72 | 4.62 | 4.46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-month-ahead unemployment rate forecast percentiles — final5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16th percentile | 3.94 | 3.97 | 4.22 | 4.19 | 4.1 | 4.35 | 4.13 | 4.22 | 4.42 | 4.16 | 4.08 | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25th percentile | 3.99 | 4.02 | 4.27 | 4.24 | 4.15 | 4.4 | 4.18 | 4.27 | 4.47 | 4.26 | 4.18 | 4.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 50th percentile (median) | 4.08 | 4.11 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 4.24 | 4.49 | 4.27 | 4.36 | 4.56 | 4.44 | 4.36 | 4.34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 75th percentile | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 4.33 | 4.58 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 4.54 | 4.43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 84th percentile | 4.22 | 4.26 | 4.5 | 4.48 | 4.38 | 4.63 | 4.41 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.72 | 4.64 | 4.48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-month-ahead unemployment rate change probabilities — preliminary7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Decrease by 0.3 percentage points or more | 3.5 | 5.2 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 11 | 3 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 8 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Decrease by 0.2 percentage points | 7.2 | 10.4 | 16.1 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Decrease by 0.1 percentage points | 15.7 | 20.8 | 27.3 | 17.3 | 18.1 | 27.8 | 13.2 | 23.5 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 18.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unchanged | 27.9 | 29.5 | 26.2 | 27.7 | 28 | 25.2 | 26.2 | 28.4 | 27.1 | 27.2 | 27.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase by 0.1 percentage points | 26.5 | 20.2 | 12.6 | 25.1 | 23.8 | 12.3 | 27.4 | 18.5 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 24.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase by 0.2 percentage points | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 12.5 | 12 | 3.8 | 15.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase by 0.3 percentage points or more | 7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 10 | 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-month-ahead unemployment rate change probabilities — final7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Decrease by 0.3 percentage points or more | 6 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 10 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Decrease by 0.2 percentage points | 11.5 | 19.2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 15.6 | 2.7 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Decrease by 0.1 percentage points | 22.4 | 29.1 | 13.8 | 16.5 | 27.3 | 11 | 25.7 | 26.1 | 26.3 | 15.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unchanged | 29.6 | 22.1 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 26.4 | 22.3 | 27.9 | 27.7 | 27.5 | 28.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase by 0.1 percentage points | 18.2 | 11.1 | 26.9 | 25.8 | 13.3 | 29 | 16.2 | 15.7 | 15.9 | 26.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase by 0.2 percentage points | 8.2 | 2.9 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 19.3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 12.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase by 0.3 percentage points or more | 4.1 | 2.7 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3 | 13 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 7.5 |
Latest reading
Flow-consistent unemployment rate stood at 4.25% in Sep 2026. That is unchanged from Aug 2026 and −0.3 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jul 2008 to Sep 2026. Source: Chicago FED Labor Market Indicators.
- Latest
- 4.25%
- Sep 2026
- vs previous period
- 0.0 pp
- Aug 2026
- vs a year earlier
- −0.3 pp
About this data
US Chicago Fed real-time labor market indicators and unemployment forecasts. It includes labor flows, contributions to unemployment rate changes, and forecasts published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago since 2008. The series track layoff rates, job finding rates, and flow-consistent unemployment metrics.
Frequently asked questions
- What do the US Chicago Fed real-time labor market indicators measure?
- They measure worker flows such as layoff and job finding rates in the United States, along with unemployment forecasts derived from these dynamics.
- How often are the Chicago Fed labor market indicators published and how far back do they go?
- They are published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago with historical data starting from 2008.
- What specific breakdowns are included in this dataset?
- The dataset includes labor flows, contributions to unemployment rate changes, and preliminary or final one-month-ahead unemployment rate forecast percentiles and probabilities.
- How should the flow-consistent unemployment rate be interpreted?
- It represents the unemployment rate the United States economy would converge to if current hiring and layoff rates remained constant, offering a real-time signal of labor market momentum.
