US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
US macroeconomic forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | Q1-2024 | Q4-2023 | Q3-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REAL GDP (Constant prices)8 | ||||||||||||||
| Previous quarter (forecaster estimated) | 24,270.6 | 24,174.5 | 24,111.8 | 23,930.06 | 23,685.3 | 23,526.1 | 23,530.9 | 23,386.2 | 22,918.7 | 22,768.9 | 22,672.9 | 22,491.6 | 20,404.1 | |
| Survey quarter | 24,418.65 | 24,300.6 | 24,269.98 | 23,997.08 | 23,759.66 | 23,613.25 | 23,676.03 | 23,512.25 | 23,026.04 | 22,888.92 | 22,793.28 | 22,565.09 | 20,500.34 | |
| One quarter ahead | 24,556.1 | 24,434.55 | 24,396.41 | 24,090.68 | 23,835.65 | 23,665.32 | 23,797.16 | 23,624.97 | 23,123.89 | 23,002.61 | 22,877.64 | 22,609.52 | 20,561.62 | |
| Two quarters ahead | 24,685.4 | 24,530.38 | 24,533.24 | 24,190.59 | 23,948.93 | 23,744.83 | 23,917.98 | 23,727.95 | 23,222.7 | 23,090.26 | 22,964.3 | 22,684.68 | 20,616.61 | |
| Three quarters ahead | 24,814.98 | 24,648.05 | 24,656.36 | 24,304.05 | 24,028.7 | 23,842.51 | 24,042.63 | 23,858.72 | 23,328.37 | 23,195.81 | 23,062.9 | 22,766.81 | 20,668.1 | |
| Four quarters ahead | 24,952.98 | 24,765.03 | 24,790.04 | 24,406.09 | 24,122.97 | 23,952.1 | 24,173.49 | 23,977.22 | 23,455.66 | 23,310.64 | 23,166.48 | 22,862.18 | 20,734.53 | |
| Current survey year | 24,359.09 | 24,363.25 | 24,464.91 | 23,810.75 | 23,698.8 | 23,634.6 | 23,853.3 | 23,291.48 | 22,957.94 | 22,934.9 | 22,922.1 | 22,348.2 | 20,434.55 | |
| Following year | 24,886.3 | 24,821.88 | 24,984.6 | 24,249.29 | 24,069.05 | 24,013.55 | 24,374.69 | 23,796 | 23,397.61 | 23,374.14 | 23,328.85 | 22,730.61 | 20,704.96 | |
| NOMINAL GDP8 | ||||||||||||||
| Previous quarter (forecaster estimated) | 32,475.2 | 31,856.3 | 31,490.1 | 30,918.82 | 30,331.1 | 29,977.6 | 29,700.6 | 29,349.9 | 28,629.2 | 28,284.5 | 27,938.8 | 27,623.5 | 26,835 | |
| Survey quarter | 32,896.35 | 32,324.23 | 31,916.04 | 31,192.41 | 30,660.84 | 30,316.53 | 30,063.21 | 29,662.72 | 28,915.4 | 28,627.91 | 28,231.68 | 27,903.91 | 27,142.36 | |
| One quarter ahead | 33,287.43 | 32,698 | 32,275.12 | 31,538.22 | 30,971.9 | 30,645.56 | 30,409.49 | 29,976.5 | 29,210.74 | 28,943.52 | 28,473.03 | 28,124.2 | 27,388.1 | |
| Two quarters ahead | 33,655.07 | 33,088.98 | 32,645.38 | 31,841.32 | 31,304.08 | 30,945.37 | 30,759.84 | 30,292.13 | 29,509.01 | 29,231.17 | 28,724.5 | 28,414.04 | 27,649.31 | |
| Three quarters ahead | 34,021.37 | 33,439.09 | 33,049.9 | 32,178.9 | 31,612.54 | 31,299.87 | 31,103.29 | 30,607.5 | 29,809.63 | 29,527.9 | 29,012.82 | 28,697.19 | 27,863.92 | |
| Four quarters ahead | 34,393.85 | 33,788.9 | 33,413.05 | 32,507.22 | 31,939.36 | 31,651.11 | 31,448.78 | 30,918.08 | 30,103.91 | 29,817.8 | 29,312.64 | 28,970.34 | 28,154.54 | |
| Current survey year | 32,635.15 | 32,484.87 | 32,441.07 | 30,645.71 | 30,479.6 | 30,489.73 | 30,583.49 | 29,161.85 | 28,754.42 | 28,779.26 | 28,603.79 | 27,351.93 | 26,967.15 | |
| Following year | 34,205.95 | 33,987.15 | 33,871.39 | 32,003.6 | 31,777.13 | 31,831.79 | 31,952.04 | 30,451.51 | 29,943.92 | 29,979.68 | 29,718.56 | 28,569.68 | 28,031.4 | |
| Unemployment rate8 | ||||||||||||||
| Previous quarter (forecaster estimated) | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Survey quarter | 4.2 | 4.36 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.12 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.76 | 3.89 | 3.6 | |
| One quarter ahead | 4.3 | 4.46 | 4.48 | 4.47 | 4.4 | 4.34 | 4.18 | 4.21 | 4.3 | 3.99 | 3.9 | 4 | 3.72 | |
| Two quarters ahead | 4.3 | 4.47 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.43 | 4.47 | 4.2 | 4.27 | 4.3 | 4 | 3.99 | 4.02 | 3.9 | |
| Three quarters ahead | 4.3 | 4.46 | 4.47 | 4.5 | 4.47 | 4.5 | 4.29 | 4.25 | 4.31 | 4.09 | 4 | 4.16 | 4 | |
| Four quarters ahead | 4.32 | 4.45 | 4.44 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 4.3 | 4.09 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | |
| Current survey year | 4.28 | 4.39 | 4.47 | 4.23 | 4.23 | 4.3 | 4.19 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 3.91 | 3.9 | 3.67 | 3.6 | |
| Following year | 4.3 | 4.47 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 4.28 | 4.3 | 4.08 | 4.09 | 4.09 | 4.05 | |
| HOUSING STARTS8 | ||||||||||||||
| Previous quarter (forecaster estimated) | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.45 | |
| Survey quarter | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.4 | |
| One quarter ahead | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.4 | |
| Two quarters ahead | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.39 | |
| Three quarters ahead | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.4 | |
| Four quarters ahead | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.4 | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.38 | 1.41 | |
| Current survey year | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.39 | 1.41 | |
| Following year | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.4 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 1.4 | |
| PROBABILITY OF REAL GDP DECLINE5 | ||||||||||||||
| Survey quarter | 13.5 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 17.5 | 30 | 19.7 | |
| One quarter ahead (angst index) | 16.6 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 27.5 | 35 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 30 | |
| Two quarters ahead | 20 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 35 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 20 | 22.5 | 32.5 | 35 | |
| Three quarters ahead | 20 | 23.7 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 30 | |
| Four quarters ahead | 20 | 22.9 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 33 |
Latest reading
Survey quarter stood at 24,418.65 USD billion in Q3 2026. That is +0.5% from Q2 2026 and +2.8% from a year earlier. The series on this page is quarterly and runs from Q4 1968 to Q3 2026. Source: Philadelphia FED (Survey of Professional Forecasters).
- Latest
- 24,418.65 USD billion
- Q3 2026
- vs previous period
- +0.5%
- Q2 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +2.8%
About this data
US macroeconomic forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. This quarterly table tracks median projections for real GDP, nominal GDP, the unemployment rate, and housing starts across multiple horizons. It includes the anxious index as a recession indicator since 1968.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)?
- The US Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly macroeconomic forecast survey in the United States, collecting expert projections from professional forecasters at financial institutions and research organizations.
- How often is the US Survey of Professional Forecasters published and how far back does it go?
- It is published quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, with historical survey data available dating back to the fourth quarter of 1968.
- What main economic measures are included in the survey table?
- The table provides median forecast values for real GDP, nominal GDP, the unemployment rate, housing starts, and the anxious index across multiple future quarters and annual horizons.
- What is the anxious index included in this survey?
- The anxious index measures the average probability assigned by forecasters to an upcoming decline in real gross domestic product in the United States, serving as a well-known recession indicator.
