US Recession Indicators
US recession indicators tracking economic contraction risk monthly since 1900.
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm Rule (real-time) | -0.07 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 0.1 | 0.13 | 0.2 | 0.27 | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.1 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.4 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.5 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.3 | 0.27 | 0.2 | 0.23 | 0.3 | 0.33 | 0.2 | 0.13 | ||
| Recession Probability (Chauvet-Piger Model) | 0.76 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.56 | 0.86 | 1.58 | 1.32 | 1.12 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0.38 | 0.1 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.24 | ||
| NBER Recession Cycles (1 = in recession) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Latest reading
Sahm Rule (real-time) stood at −0.07% in Aug 2026. That is unchanged from Jul 2026 and −0.2 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Dec 1959 to Aug 2026. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Latest
- −0.07%
- Aug 2026
- vs previous period
- 0.0 pp
- Jul 2026
- vs a year earlier
- −0.2 pp
About this data
US recession indicators tracking economic contraction risk monthly since 1900. Includes the Sahm rule unemployment indicator, Chauvet-Piger recession probability, and official NBER business cycle cycles from FRED. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Frequently asked questions
- What do the US recession indicators measure?
- The United States recession indicators track economic contraction risk using the Sahm rule, the Chauvet-Piger recession probability model, and official NBER business cycle dates.
- How often is this data published and how far back does it go?
- This data is updated monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and historical series extend back to 1900 depending on the specific recession measure.
- What is the Sahm rule in these US recession indicators?
- The Sahm rule identifies the start of a United States recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by a defined threshold above its prior low.
- How does the NBER recession cycle series differ from the models?
- The National Bureau of Economic Research provides the official retrospective determination of United States business cycle peaks and troughs, whereas the Sahm rule and Chauvet-Piger model offer real-time signals.
