Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index tracks United States economic growth and recession risks.
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI - Headline Index | -0.04 | 0.08 | -0.01 | -0.1 | 0.13 | -0.11 | 0.22 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.31 | -0.5 | -0.31 | -0.36 | 0.02 | -0.09 | -0.31 | -0.36 | 0.16 | 0.39 | -0.5 | 0.33 | -0.05 | -0.56 | -0.29 | -0.08 | -0.39 | -0.22 | 0.16 | -0.38 | -0.13 | 0.26 | -0.98 | -0.12 | 0.14 | -0.51 | -0.03 | -0.17 | |
| CFNAI-MA3 - 3-Month Moving Average | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.15 | -0.29 | -0.37 | -0.39 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -0.13 | -0.25 | -0.17 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.07 | -0.09 | -0.3 | -0.31 | -0.25 | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.28 | -0.28 | -0.32 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.02 | -0.15 | |
| Diffusion Index (3-Month Moving Average) | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 | -0.09 | -0.27 | -0.48 | -0.54 | -0.56 | -0.33 | -0.18 | -0.2 | -0.39 | -0.4 | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.23 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.25 | -0.21 | -0.25 | -0.29 | -0.26 | -0.2 | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.08 | -0.16 | |
| FOUR BROAD CATEGORIES4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Production and Income | -0.07 | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.2 | -0.06 | 0.24 | -0.17 | -0.01 | -0.16 | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.13 | 0.09 | 0.04 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -0.03 | 0.37 | -0.2 | 0.22 | -0.07 | -0.32 | -0.31 | 0.07 | -0.41 | -0.08 | 0.13 | -0.21 | -0.03 | 0.33 | -0.61 | -0.12 | 0.08 | -0.25 | -0.03 | -0.09 | |
| Employment, Unemployment, and Hours | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | -0.13 | 0.05 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.1 | -0.01 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.08 | -0.06 | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.1 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.1 | -0.02 | -0.1 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0 | -0.13 | -0.02 | 0.01 | |
| Personal Consumption and Housing | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.04 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.02 | 0.1 | -0.03 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.01 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.09 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.02 | |
| Sales, Orders, and Inventories | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0 | -0.08 | -0.08 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.09 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.17 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.02 | -0.2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | -0.17 | 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.14 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 0.05 | -0.11 | 0.04 | -0.07 |
Latest reading
CFNAI - Headline Index stood at −0.04 Standard deviations in Aug 2026. That is −0.12 Standard deviations from Jul 2026 and +0.32 Standard deviations from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Mar 1967 to Aug 2026. Source: Chicago FED National Activity Index (CFNAI).
- Latest
- −0.04 Standard deviations
- Aug 2026
- vs previous period
- −0.12 Standard deviations
- Jul 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +0.32 Standard deviations
About this data
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index tracks United States economic growth and recession risks. Published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, this dataset compiles eighty-five indicators into a single statistical measure. Coverage includes the headline index, the three-month moving average, and a diffusion index starting from 1967. The series are broken down into four major categories: production and income, employment, consumption and housing, and sales.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the Chicago Fed National Activity Index measure?
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index measures overall economic activity and inflation pressure in the United States. It aggregates eighty-five monthly indicators of economic activity into a single index scaled in standard deviations relative to historical trend growth.
- How often is the CFNAI updated and how far back does it go?
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago publishes the index on a monthly basis. The historical data series for the United States are available starting from March 1967.
- What are the main components and breakdowns of the CFNAI?
- The United States index is broken down into four major categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. It also includes a three-month moving average and a diffusion index.
- How should analysts interpret the CFNAI values?
- An index value of zero indicates the United States economy is expanding at its historical trend rate. Positive readings indicate growth above trend, while negative readings indicate growth below trend, with specific thresholds on the three-month moving average signaling recession risks.
