US Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR)
US geopolitical risk index tracking tensions, conflicts, and threats from major newspapers since 1900.
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR)2 | 117.92 | 167.53 | 179.94 | 203.58 | 250.28 | 330.18 | 119.87 | 168.63 | 132.49 | 103.94 | 153.48 | 125.87 | 138.99 | 134.64 | 222.59 | 167.42 | 141.18 | 175.9 | 136.98 | 113.23 | 142.37 | 128.9 | 130.69 | 130.36 | 140.98 | 92.39 | 113.09 | 130.52 | 163.95 | 133.21 | 146.6 | 160.37 | 142.28 | 156.7 | 197.89 | 98.63 | 101.14 | |
| Threat component | 130.72 | 190.89 | 214.94 | 233.49 | 268.6 | 319.2 | 156.01 | 220.17 | 146.36 | 118.01 | 166.62 | 141.81 | 160.42 | 156.8 | 288.16 | 206.16 | 159.27 | 195.68 | 138.77 | 117.09 | 128.26 | 139.15 | 128.41 | 134.04 | 124.8 | 95.16 | 125.71 | 131.45 | 170.7 | 121.54 | 140.24 | 140.84 | 136.18 | 143.49 | 205.04 | 125.65 | 117.61 | |
| Act component | 120.35 | 180.7 | 184.83 | 215.25 | 305.94 | 450.36 | 81.24 | 100.22 | 123.53 | 88.7 | 151.14 | 114.79 | 121.73 | 119.75 | 183.73 | 149.22 | 132.47 | 159.82 | 140.79 | 109.5 | 164.81 | 127.43 | 142.82 | 135.55 | 165.18 | 95.11 | 109.74 | 133.15 | 165.99 | 151.81 | 171.18 | 208.47 | 173.96 | 189.55 | 221.8 | 68.47 | 83.61 | |
| US Geopolitical Risk | 3.1 | 4.22 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 6.65 | 8.68 | 3.07 | 4.57 | 3.25 | 2.65 | 3.73 | 3.11 | 3.4 | 3.18 | 5.66 | 4.14 | 3.52 | 4.51 | 3.54 | 2.75 | 3.29 | 3.17 | 3.03 | 2.97 | 3.21 | 2.09 | 2.69 | 3.11 | 4.02 | 2.94 | 3.4 | 3.85 | 3.42 | 3.73 | 4.42 | 2.22 | 2.16 | |
| HISTORICAL VERSION FROM 1900 (3 newspapers)2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Historical GPR Index2 | 118.2 | 149.6 | 172.49 | 161.21 | 211.12 | 252.1 | 108.26 | 128.07 | 112.33 | 90.53 | 132.37 | 113.95 | 119.71 | 106.21 | 156.37 | 128.93 | 111.3 | 119.59 | 94.5 | 100.89 | 116.52 | 94.96 | 90.89 | 95.7 | 105.3 | 71.84 | 86.77 | 107.46 | 112.01 | 96.97 | 109.95 | 119.98 | 125.21 | 138.68 | 138.63 | 69.46 | 74.22 | |
| Threat component | 157.48 | 207.4 | 233.15 | 214.21 | 261.35 | 281.94 | 159.08 | 198.12 | 142.11 | 119.12 | 165.66 | 161.89 | 179.55 | 136.64 | 237.55 | 188.29 | 144.3 | 143.99 | 107.75 | 112.79 | 113.43 | 123.34 | 103.32 | 102.59 | 100.77 | 79.6 | 100.23 | 128.57 | 120.66 | 103.33 | 127.36 | 127.47 | 136.25 | 145.27 | 167.76 | 94.77 | 102.51 | |
| Act component | 102.43 | 156.35 | 177.69 | 170.47 | 241.77 | 314.01 | 74.48 | 70.97 | 99.59 | 77.97 | 122.55 | 91.92 | 92.08 | 101.14 | 122.95 | 107.9 | 106.62 | 120.67 | 98.23 | 99.39 | 124.54 | 88.91 | 94.79 | 100.68 | 122.46 | 68.05 | 89.5 | 102.5 | 119.72 | 104.91 | 122.78 | 137.39 | 148.5 | 166.37 | 144.3 | 57.66 | 56.07 | |
| US-related, historical version | 3.41 | 4.16 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 5.86 | 7.06 | 2.87 | 3.4 | 2.87 | 2.16 | 3.2 | 2.74 | 2.96 | 2.69 | 3.79 | 3.37 | 2.91 | 2.96 | 2.22 | 2.32 | 4.03 | 3.38 | 3.15 | 3.3 | 3.65 | 2.47 | 3.08 | 3.74 | 3.84 | 3.36 | 3.76 | 4.05 | 4.48 | 5 | 4.97 | 2.51 | 2.64 |
Latest reading
The latest reading is 117.92, for Aug 2026. That is −29.6% from Jul 2026 and −15.2% from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jan 1985 to Aug 2026. Source: Caldara & Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index (Federal Reserve Board economists).
- Latest
- 117.92
- Aug 2026
- vs previous period
- −29.6%
- Jul 2026
- vs a year earlier
- −15.2%
About this data
US geopolitical risk index tracking tensions, conflicts, and threats from major newspapers since 1900. Developed by Federal Reserve Board economists, this monthly index measures the share of newspaper articles dedicated to geopolitical events. Analysts use it to quantify United States threat and act components relative to the base period.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the US Geopolitical Risk Index measure?
- The US Geopolitical Risk Index measures tensions such as war, terrorism, and military threats based on the frequency of related articles in major newspapers.
- How often is the US Geopolitical Risk Index published and how far back does it go?
- The index is published monthly by Federal Reserve Board economists, with historical series extending back to 1900.
- What specific components are available in the US Geopolitical Risk Index table?
- The table includes the overall Geopolitical Risk Index, US-specific geopolitical risk, threat components, act components, and historical versions.
- How is the US Geopolitical Risk Index scaled?
- The index is typically scaled so that the average over a benchmark period, such as 1985 to 2019, equals 100.
