US Daily Geopolitical Risk Index
US daily Geopolitical Risk Index from Caldara and Iacoviello.
| Indicator | 14-09-2026 | 13-09-2026 | 12-09-2026 | 11-09-2026 | 10-09-2026 | 09-09-2026 | 08-09-2026 | 07-09-2026 | 06-09-2026 | 05-09-2026 | 04-09-2026 | 03-09-2026 | 02-09-2026 | 01-09-2026 | 31-08-2026 | 30-08-2026 | 29-08-2026 | 28-08-2026 | 27-08-2026 | 26-08-2026 | 25-08-2026 | 24-08-2026 | 23-08-2026 | 22-08-2026 | 21-08-2026 | 20-08-2026 | 19-08-2026 | 18-08-2026 | 17-08-2026 | 16-08-2026 | 15-08-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily GPR Index4 | 189.53 | 137.69 | 101.53 | 208.34 | 190.23 | 220.84 | 100.82 | 143.61 | 110.14 | 161.92 | 160.88 | 168.44 | 215.57 | 167.45 | 145.89 | 78.87 | 108.09 | 180.69 | 165.28 | 147.07 | 168.03 | 173.52 | 56.95 | 155.17 | 174.35 | 170.6 | 112.29 | 210.1 | 169.88 | 56.46 | 44.09 | |
| 7-day moving average | 164.14 | 157.58 | 153.64 | 162.27 | 155.49 | 152.38 | 151.62 | 161.14 | 161.47 | 157 | 149.31 | 152.14 | 151.69 | 141.91 | 141.99 | 145.93 | 142.8 | 149.53 | 148.62 | 149.38 | 144.42 | 150.43 | 149.91 | 149.84 | 133.97 | 124.77 | 116.01 | 120.28 | 104.21 | 92.53 | 93.25 | |
| 30-day moving average | 151.67 | 146.83 | 145.9 | 146.16 | 143.95 | 140.87 | 136.44 | 135.13 | 133.84 | 135.76 | 134.33 | 133.6 | 133.54 | 132.32 | 129.47 | 128.04 | 131.07 | 135.02 | 133.64 | 133.23 | 134.57 | 134.56 | 133.25 | 141.66 | 145.49 | 146.45 | 145.54 | 149.19 | 146.45 | 145.72 | 149.37 | |
| Threat component | 219.26 | 161.63 | 84.43 | 184.79 | 240 | 331.73 | 107.78 | 191.06 | 112.72 | 224.4 | 121.61 | 233.43 | 274.85 | 205.83 | 185.54 | 87.44 | 74.02 | 189.2 | 240.52 | 151.41 | 212.91 | 183.63 | 94.71 | 190.74 | 229.54 | 189.15 | 116.72 | 279.53 | 154.1 | 93.9 | 45.83 | |
| Act component | 246.45 | 161.49 | 113.87 | 221.54 | 209.26 | 127.83 | 71.79 | 152.71 | 152.03 | 121.06 | 218.7 | 209.9 | 171.92 | 130.64 | 222.44 | 87.36 | 177.48 | 226.83 | 82.39 | 195.49 | 111.67 | 141.53 | 0 | 134.52 | 115.87 | 141.73 | 111.94 | 237.38 | 230.94 | 18.76 | 32.97 |
Latest reading
30-day moving average stood at 151.67 in Sep 14, 2026. That is +3.3% from Sep 13, 2026 and +16.4% from a year earlier. The series on this page is daily and runs from Jan 1, 1985 to Sep 14, 2026. Source: Caldara & Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index (Federal Reserve Board economists).
- Latest
- 151.67
- Sep 14, 2026
- vs previous period
- +3.3%
- Sep 13, 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +16.4%
Look up any date
Pick a date between Jan 1, 1985 and Sep 14, 2026 to see every series in this table on that day. If there is no reading that day (weekend, holiday, or a weekly release), the last reading before it is shown.
About this data
US daily Geopolitical Risk Index from Caldara and Iacoviello. This daily index tracks geopolitical tensions from 1985 onward using automated text analysis. It features 7-day and 30-day moving averages along with threat and act sub-indices. The base period is set to an average of 100 for 1985 to 2019.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the US Daily Geopolitical Risk Index?
- It is a daily index for the United States created by Federal Reserve economists Caldara and Iacoviello to measure tensions arising from international conflicts and military acts.
- How often is the index published and what is its history?
- The index is published daily and historical data extends back to 1985, allowing researchers to track the evolution of geopolitical shocks over time.
- What sub-indices are included in the dataset?
- The index includes threat and act components, as well as 7-day and 30-day moving averages designed to smooth daily volatility in the United States series.
- How is the baseline for the index calculated?
- The index values in the United States are scaled against a historical average of 100 covering the benchmark period from 1985 through 2019.
