US Michigan Long-Term Inflation Expectations
US Michigan long-term inflation expectations and consumer price outlook from the University of Michigan.
| Indicator | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | 07-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-term inflation expectations (annual average for the next 5 years)4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Median | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | |
| Average | 6.8 | 7 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | |
| 25th percentile | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | |
| 75th percentile | 6.6 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 6 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5 | 4.6 | 5 | 5 | |
| 12-month ahead inflation expectations3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Average | 7.1 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5 | |
| 25th percentile | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 75th percentile | 7.2 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10 | 10 | 10.4 | 10 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5.4 | |
| Expected gasoline price change4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Next 12 months — median | 10.4 | 15 | 40.5 | 49.5 | 24.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | |
| Next 12 months — average | 21 | 20.9 | 38.9 | 36.7 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 15.7 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 14 | 7.8 | 6.4 | -0.1 | 6 | 17 | 11.6 | 12 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 18.5 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 14.7 | 20.4 | 18.6 | 16.9 | 15.7 | 13.6 | |
| Next 5 years — median | 4.7 | 0.2 | 25.4 | 39.8 | 30.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 20.1 | 20.3 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 19.8 | 34.7 | 20.3 | 24.9 | 19.7 | 6.8 | |
| Next 5 years — average | 29.7 | 17.5 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 43.6 | 21.8 | 22.5 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 28 | 29.2 | 25.4 | 32.6 | 21.4 | 20.8 | 24.7 | 29.1 | 19.5 | 23.4 | 12.8 | 22.7 | 37.7 | 35.6 | 31.9 | 34.4 | 39.8 | 38.8 | 37 | 33.8 | 43.2 | 38.7 | 41.6 | 51.4 | 41.3 | 47 | 47.6 | 39.1 | |
| House prices5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| House prices compared to one year ago (increase − decrease + 100) | 140 | 136 | 132 | 129 | 134 | 125 | 133 | 134 | 136 | 133 | 140 | 144 | 146 | 147 | 147 | 144 | 142 | 147 | 152 | 155 | 146 | 156 | 156 | 158 | 164 | 156 | 152 | 162 | 150 | 148 | 155 | 148 | 149 | 148 | 149 | 151 | 144 | |
| Next 12-month expected change — median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |
| Next 12-month expected change — average | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | |
| Expected annual change for the next 5 years — median | 3.2 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 | |
| Expected annual change for the next 5 years — average | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | |
| Expected household income growth next year — median | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
Latest reading
Median stood at 3.3 %/year in Jul 2026. That is unchanged from Jun 2026 and −0.1 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Feb 1979 to Jul 2026. Source: University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers.
- Latest
- 3.3 %/year
- Jul 2026
- vs previous period
- 0.0 pp
- Jun 2026
- vs a year earlier
- −0.1 pp
About this data
US Michigan long-term inflation expectations and consumer price outlook from the University of Michigan. This monthly table tracks consumer price expectations for the next 12 months and the next 5 years since 1978. It includes statistical breakdowns like the median, average, and percentiles, alongside gasoline price changes and house price expectations.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the US Michigan Long-Term Inflation Expectations table measure?
- It measures the average annual rate of price increase that United States consumers project for the next five years, alongside 12-month ahead inflation expectations, house price views, and expected gasoline price changes from the University of Michigan.
- How frequently is this inflation expectations survey published and what is its history?
- The survey results are published monthly by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, with historical series beginning in 1978.
- Which statistical breakdowns are available in the table?
- The table provides the full distribution of responses, including the median, average, 25th percentile, and 75th percentile for both short-term and long-term consumer inflation expectations.
- Why does the Federal Reserve monitor these consumer inflation expectations?
- The Federal Reserve monitors long-term consumer inflation expectations to determine whether consumer price views remain anchored to its official inflation target.
