What do US 5-year inflation expectations measure?

They measure the average annual inflation rate expected by the bond market over a five-year horizon in the United States, derived from Treasury securities.

How frequently are these inflation expectations updated?

The series are updated daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, with historical data available starting from 2003.

What is the difference between 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations in the table?

The table provides separate measures for the five-year and ten-year horizons, reflecting market pricing over different periods.

How are these breakeven inflation rates calculated?

They are calculated from the yield spread between nominal US Treasury securities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of matching maturities.

US 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Breakeven)

Name: US 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Breakeven)
Creator: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

US 5-year inflation expectations priced by the bond market using Treasury securities.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)Last updated: Sep 26, 2026, 05:45Curated by Bui Thanh PhucAbout this data ↓

	Indicator	25-09-2026	24-09-2026	23-09-2026	22-09-2026	21-09-2026	18-09-2026	17-09-2026	16-09-2026	15-09-2026	14-09-2026	11-09-2026	10-09-2026	09-09-2026	08-09-2026	04-09-2026	03-09-2026	02-09-2026	01-09-2026	31-08-2026	28-08-2026	27-08-2026	26-08-2026	25-08-2026	24-08-2026	21-08-2026	20-08-2026	19-08-2026	18-08-2026	17-08-2026	14-08-2026	13-08-2026
	5-Year Inflation Expectations	2.34	2.33	2.34	2.32	2.33	2.31	2.32	2.35	2.41	2.4	2.4	2.46	2.41	2.4	2.37	2.37	2.35	2.37	2.31	2.3	2.31	2.31	2.31	2.32	2.34	2.34	2.28	2.27	2.25	2.24	2.21
	10-Year Inflation Expectations	2.34	2.33	2.35	2.33	2.34	2.33	2.33	2.33	2.38	2.37	2.36	2.4	2.37	2.37	2.35	2.35	2.34	2.35	2.31	2.31	2.33	2.32	2.32	2.32	2.34	2.34	2.3	2.3	2.28	2.27	2.24

Latest reading

10-Year Inflation Expectations stood at 2.34 %/year in Sep 25, 2026. That is unchanged from Sep 24, 2026 and unchanged from a year earlier. The series on this page is daily and runs from Jan 2, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

Latest: 2.34 %/year; Sep 25, 2026
vs previous period: 0.0 pp; Sep 24, 2026
vs a year earlier: 0.0 pp

Look up any date

Pick a date between Jan 2, 2003 and Sep 25, 2026 to see every series in this table on that day. If there is no reading that day (weekend, holiday, or a weekly release), the last reading before it is shown.

About this data

US 5-year inflation expectations priced by the bond market using Treasury securities. This daily table provides market-derived inflation rates for the next five and ten years in the United States. Series begin in 2003 and are sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Frequently asked questions

What do US 5-year inflation expectations measure?: They measure the average annual inflation rate expected by the bond market over a five-year horizon in the United States, derived from Treasury securities.
How frequently are these inflation expectations updated?: The series are updated daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, with historical data available starting from 2003.
What is the difference between 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations in the table?: The table provides separate measures for the five-year and ten-year horizons, reflecting market pricing over different periods.
How are these breakeven inflation rates calculated?: They are calculated from the yield spread between nominal US Treasury securities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of matching maturities.