What does the US inflation expectations yield curve measure?

It measures model-implied inflation expectations across maturities from 1 to 30 years for the United States, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

How often is the Cleveland Fed inflation model updated and how far back does it go?

It is published monthly and historical series begin in 1982, capturing long-run shifts in market credibility.

What specific breakdowns are included in this table?

The table includes expectations across ten maturity lengths, 10-year risk premium series for real risk and inflation risk, and model-implied real interest rates at select maturities.

How does this differ from TIPS break-even inflation rates?

Unlike TIPS break-evens which incorporate liquidity and risk premiums, the Cleveland Fed model separates pure inflation expectations from these underlying risk factors.

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US Inflation Expectations by Maturity

Name: US Inflation Expectations by Maturity
Creator: Cleveland FED (Inflation Expectations Model)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

US inflation expectations yield curve from 1 to 30 years by the Cleveland Fed.

Source: Cleveland FED (Inflation Expectations Model)Last updated: Sep 21, 2026, 14:59Curated by Bui Thanh PhucAbout this data ↓

Indicator	09-2026	08-2026	07-2026	06-2026	05-2026	04-2026	03-2026	02-2026	01-2026	12-2025	11-2025	10-2025	09-2025	08-2025	07-2025	06-2025	05-2025	04-2025	03-2025	02-2025	01-2025	12-2024	11-2024	10-2024	09-2024	08-2024	07-2024	06-2024	05-2024	04-2024	03-2024	02-2024	01-2024	12-2023	11-2023	10-2023	09-2023
Inflation Expectation Curve10
1-Year Inflation Expectation	2.64	2.4	2.39	3.04	3.54	3.28	2.3	2.59	2.59	3.19	2.7	2.73	2.8	2.69	2.79	2.38	2.69	2.89	2.18	2.73	2.63	2.65	2.43	2.26	2.24	2.35	2.56	2.73	2.94	2.7	2.08	2.43	2.42	3.09	2.79	2.77	2.81
2-Year Inflation Expectation	2.63	2.47	2.44	2.76	2.98	2.83	2.26	2.47	2.45	2.74	2.5	2.5	2.55	2.48	2.56	2.38	2.5	2.62	2.26	2.61	2.55	2.5	2.4	2.21	2.21	2.29	2.51	2.59	2.73	2.56	2.2	2.32	2.32	2.7	2.62	2.6	2.54
3-Year Inflation Expectation	2.61	2.49	2.43	2.64	2.77	2.65	2.22	2.42	2.39	2.57	2.41	2.4	2.43	2.39	2.46	2.36	2.41	2.5	2.27	2.55	2.5	2.42	2.37	2.16	2.17	2.24	2.45	2.5	2.62	2.47	2.21	2.24	2.25	2.52	2.53	2.51	2.41
5-Year Inflation Expectation	2.58	2.49	2.43	2.53	2.6	2.5	2.18	2.37	2.34	2.42	2.33	2.32	2.34	2.3	2.37	2.34	2.34	2.4	2.27	2.49	2.46	2.35	2.33	2.11	2.12	2.17	2.39	2.41	2.51	2.38	2.2	2.16	2.18	2.36	2.44	2.41	2.28
7-Year Inflation Expectation	2.57	2.49	2.43	2.49	2.53	2.45	2.18	2.36	2.32	2.37	2.31	2.3	2.3	2.28	2.34	2.33	2.31	2.36	2.28	2.47	2.44	2.33	2.32	2.1	2.11	2.16	2.37	2.38	2.47	2.35	2.2	2.14	2.16	2.3	2.4	2.38	2.23
10-Year Inflation Expectation	2.57	2.5	2.44	2.47	2.49	2.42	2.19	2.37	2.33	2.35	2.31	2.3	2.3	2.28	2.34	2.35	2.31	2.35	2.3	2.47	2.44	2.32	2.33	2.12	2.12	2.16	2.37	2.37	2.45	2.34	2.22	2.15	2.16	2.28	2.38	2.36	2.22
15-Year Inflation Expectation	2.58	2.52	2.46	2.47	2.48	2.42	2.24	2.4	2.36	2.36	2.34	2.33	2.32	2.31	2.36	2.38	2.34	2.37	2.34	2.48	2.46	2.35	2.36	2.17	2.18	2.21	2.39	2.38	2.46	2.36	2.27	2.19	2.21	2.29	2.4	2.38	2.25
20-Year Inflation Expectation	2.59	2.54	2.49	2.49	2.49	2.44	2.29	2.43	2.4	2.39	2.37	2.36	2.36	2.35	2.39	2.41	2.37	2.4	2.38	2.5	2.48	2.38	2.4	2.23	2.23	2.26	2.42	2.41	2.47	2.39	2.31	2.24	2.26	2.33	2.42	2.41	2.29
25-Year Inflation Expectation	2.6	2.55	2.51	2.5	2.51	2.46	2.33	2.46	2.43	2.42	2.4	2.39	2.39	2.38	2.42	2.44	2.4	2.43	2.41	2.52	2.5	2.41	2.43	2.27	2.28	2.3	2.45	2.44	2.49	2.42	2.35	2.29	2.3	2.36	2.45	2.43	2.33
30-Year Inflation Expectation	2.61	2.57	2.53	2.52	2.52	2.48	2.37	2.48	2.45	2.44	2.43	2.42	2.42	2.41	2.45	2.47	2.43	2.45	2.44	2.54	2.52	2.44	2.46	2.32	2.32	2.34	2.47	2.46	2.51	2.45	2.39	2.33	2.34	2.39	2.47	2.46	2.36
RISK PREMIUM (10-Year Maturity)2
Real Risk Premium	1.34	1.32	1.31	1.3	1.22	1.19	1.13	1.27	1.25	1.21	1.24	1.22	1.23	1.22	1.25	1.29	1.25	1.25	1.28	1.35	1.37	1.34	1.39	1.23	1.25	1.27	1.34	1.35	1.39	1.34	1.34	1.29	1.32	1.35	1.44	1.46	1.36
Inflation Risk Premium	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.37	0.34	0.29	0.21	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.43	0.42	0.42	0.39	0.46	0.47	0.44	0.45	0.45	0.5	0.5	0.49	0.51	0.42	0.45	0.45	0.49	0.48	0.51	0.5	0.51	0.46	0.48	0.48	0.49	0.46	0.36
MODEL-BASED REAL INTEREST RATE3
1-Month Real Interest Rate	2.1	2.9	2.9	1.1	-1.25	-0.24	2.72	1.12	1.14	-0.64	1.14	0.91	1.02	1.42	1.05	2.55	1.58	0.98	3.35	1.59	2.07	2.09	2.76	3.15	3.82	3.83	3.59	3.15	2.43	2.95	4.83	3.46	3.51	1.54	2.91	3.01	2.49
1-Year Real Interest Rate	1.7	2.17	2.17	1.41	0.35	1.14	3.06	0.89	0.86	-0.14	1	0.97	1.15	1.52	0.84	1.72	1.2	0.87	2.26	1.34	1.64	1.59	2.05	2.21	2.45	2.54	2.51	2.32	1.95	2.08	3.04	2.4	2.51	1.63	2.78	3.18	3.32
10-Year Real Interest Rate	2.24	2.19	2.07	1.92	1.63	1.59	1.47	1.75	1.67	1.46	1.61	1.55	1.57	1.57	1.66	1.87	1.67	1.67	1.86	2.03	2.06	1.82	1.96	1.48	1.58	1.66	2.05	2	2.1	1.94	1.93	1.62	1.68	1.68	2.09	2.08	1.7

Latest reading

10-Year Inflation Expectation stood at 2.57% in Sep 2026. That is +0.1 pp from Aug 2026 and +0.3 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jan 1982 to Sep 2026. Source: Cleveland FED (Inflation Expectations Model).

Latest: 2.57%; Sep 2026
vs previous period: +0.1 pp; Aug 2026
vs a year earlier: +0.3 pp

About this data

US inflation expectations yield curve from 1 to 30 years by the Cleveland Fed. This monthly model separates pure inflation expectations from risk premiums since 1982 using nominal yields and surveys. Figures are quoted in percent per annum. Compare model-based expectations with professional surveys to analyze long-term monetary credibility.

Frequently asked questions

What does the US inflation expectations yield curve measure?: It measures model-implied inflation expectations across maturities from 1 to 30 years for the United States, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
How often is the Cleveland Fed inflation model updated and how far back does it go?: It is published monthly and historical series begin in 1982, capturing long-run shifts in market credibility.
What specific breakdowns are included in this table?: The table includes expectations across ten maturity lengths, 10-year risk premium series for real risk and inflation risk, and model-implied real interest rates at select maturities.
How does this differ from TIPS break-even inflation rates?: Unlike TIPS break-evens which incorporate liquidity and risk premiums, the Cleveland Fed model separates pure inflation expectations from these underlying risk factors.