US Household Inflation Expectations
US household inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey.
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-YEAR HORIZON5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Median | 3.58 | 3.63 | 3.67 | 3.46 | 3.64 | 3.42 | 3 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.2 | 3.24 | 3.38 | 3.2 | 3.09 | 3.02 | 3.2 | 3.63 | 3.58 | 3.13 | 3 | 3 | 2.97 | 2.87 | 3 | 3 | 2.97 | 3.02 | 3.17 | 3.26 | 3 | 3.04 | 3 | 3.01 | 3.36 | 3.57 | 3.67 | 3.63 | |
| 25th Percentile | 2.54 | 2.19 | 2.05 | 1.99 | 1.96 | 1.68 | 1.03 | 1 | 1.15 | 1.29 | 1 | 1.31 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.74 | 0.94 | 0.65 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.56 | 0.97 | 1.01 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 1.23 | 1 | 1 | 1.46 | 1.53 | 1.9 | 1.5 | |
| 75th Percentile | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.49 | 6 | 5.53 | 5.94 | 6.01 | 6.09 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.69 | 7.35 | 6.89 | 6.24 | 6 | 6 | 5.77 | 5.65 | 6 | 6 | 5.29 | 6 | 6 | 6.06 | 5.94 | 6 | 6 | 5.92 | 6.1 | 6.53 | 6.41 | 6.97 | |
| Mean Point Forecast | 4.13 | 4.11 | 4.19 | 4.34 | 4.51 | 4.17 | 3.91 | 4.01 | 4.06 | 4.28 | 4.05 | 4.07 | 4.54 | 3.96 | 4.21 | 4.29 | 4.79 | 4.53 | 4.28 | 3.87 | 3.76 | 3.03 | 3.02 | 3.09 | 3.48 | 3.36 | 3.99 | 4.19 | 4.09 | 3.97 | 3.99 | 4.36 | 3.98 | 4.49 | 4.94 | 4.9 | 4.95 | |
| Average Uncertainty | 2.92 | 2.71 | 2.89 | 3.62 | 3.45 | 3.38 | 3.04 | 3.29 | 3.47 | 3.28 | 3.34 | 3.27 | 3.56 | 3.45 | 3.67 | 4 | 4.07 | 3.84 | 4 | 3.45 | 3.4 | 3.32 | 3.16 | 3.18 | 3.29 | 3.29 | 3.28 | 3.7 | 3.65 | 3.26 | 3.27 | 3.74 | 3.4 | 3.39 | 3.69 | 3.5 | 3.44 | |
| 3-YEAR HORIZON5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Median | 3.19 | 3.26 | 3.34 | 3.13 | 3.15 | 3.08 | 3 | 2.98 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.05 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.17 | 3 | 3 | 2.99 | 2.97 | 2.57 | 2.54 | 2.66 | 2.54 | 2.33 | 2.93 | 2.76 | 2.76 | 2.9 | 2.71 | 2.35 | 2.62 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.79 | |
| 25th Percentile | 1 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 1 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.88 | -0 | 0.15 | 0.59 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | -0 | 0 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | |
| 75th Percentile | 5.94 | 5.94 | 6 | 5.94 | 6 | 6 | 5.42 | 5.77 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5.94 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.37 | 6.73 | 6.37 | 6.04 | 6 | 6 | 5.65 | 5.42 | 5.97 | 5.72 | 5.21 | 5.61 | 5.82 | 5.71 | 5.42 | 4.98 | 5.06 | 5.35 | 5.92 | 6 | 6 | 5.73 | |
| Mean Point Forecast | 3.94 | 3.94 | 3.97 | 4 | 3.95 | 3.89 | 3.27 | 3.95 | 3.9 | 3.95 | 3.94 | 3.88 | 3.98 | 3.43 | 3.52 | 3.98 | 3.92 | 3.8 | 3.42 | 3.03 | 3.07 | 3 | 2.82 | 3 | 3.03 | 3.05 | 3.17 | 3.05 | 3.46 | 3.15 | 3.17 | 3.03 | 3.04 | 3.18 | 3.79 | 3.47 | 3.05 | |
| Average Uncertainty | 2.72 | 2.84 | 2.82 | 3.54 | 3.16 | 3.27 | 2.87 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.31 | 3.31 | 3.4 | 3.39 | 3.29 | 3.45 | 4 | 4.01 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.23 | 3.5 | 3.23 | 3.02 | 3.13 | 3.33 | 3.4 | 3.42 | 3.69 | 3.37 | 3.55 | 3.27 | 3.62 | 3.43 | 3.45 | 3.33 | 3.31 | 3.22 | |
| 5-YEAR HORIZON5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Median | 3.01 | 3.02 | 3 | 3.02 | 3.01 | 3.05 | 2.98 | 3 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 3 | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.88 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.74 | 2.86 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 2.72 | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 2.81 | 2.83 | 3 | 2.82 | 2.62 | 2.89 | 2.54 | 2.54 | 2.68 | 2.72 | 2.84 | 3 | |
| 25th Percentile | 0.66 | 0.88 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 75th Percentile | 5.71 | 5.56 | 5.28 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5.23 | 5.71 | 5.66 | 5.71 | 5.82 | 5.37 | 5.56 | 5.6 | 5.39 | 5.54 | 5.87 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5.94 | 5.97 | 5.93 | 6 | 6 | 5.94 | 6 | 6 | 5.87 | 5.24 | 5.68 | 5.38 | 4.95 | 5.34 | 5.22 | 5.69 | 5.53 | |
| Mean Point Forecast | 3.16 | 3.22 | 3.14 | 3.41 | 3.84 | 3.58 | 3.05 | 3.09 | 3.39 | 3.26 | 3.14 | 3.09 | 3.14 | 3.1 | 3.21 | 2.99 | 2.99 | 2.93 | 3.02 | 2.99 | 3.02 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.01 | 3.02 | 3.06 | 3.07 | 3.33 | 3.12 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 3.01 | 2.81 | 2.97 | 2.96 | |
| Average Uncertainty | 2.83 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 2.78 | 2.97 | 3.23 | 2.8 | 3.39 | 3.09 | 3 | 3.22 | 3.35 | 2.86 | 3.29 | 3.34 | 3.33 | 3.31 | 3.05 | 3.62 | 2.98 | 2.78 | 3.01 | 2.86 | 3.03 | 2.73 | 3.26 | 3.29 | 3.09 | 3.23 | 3.14 | 3.2 | 3.25 | 3.12 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.66 | 3.05 | |
| COMMODITY PRICE EXPECTATIONS (1-year ahead)6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gasoline | 4.61 | 2.89 | 1.46 | 4.96 | 5.11 | 9.42 | 4.09 | 2.8 | 3.96 | 4.09 | 3.55 | 4.23 | 3.92 | 3.88 | 4.18 | 2.71 | 3.48 | 3.16 | 3.74 | 2.58 | 2 | 2.72 | 3.24 | 3.38 | 3.62 | 3.46 | 4.27 | 4.85 | 4.78 | 4.47 | 4.31 | 4.16 | 4.5 | 4.54 | 5.05 | 4.82 | 4.9 | |
| Food | 5.3 | 5 | 4.97 | 5.78 | 5.18 | 5.98 | 5.27 | 5.74 | 5.74 | 5.87 | 5.74 | 5.85 | 5.53 | 5.49 | 5.52 | 5.52 | 5.08 | 5.23 | 5.09 | 4.6 | 4.05 | 3.77 | 4.27 | 4.47 | 4.42 | 4.67 | 4.84 | 5.3 | 5.31 | 5.08 | 4.89 | 4.9 | 5.03 | 5.26 | 5.58 | 5.65 | 5.28 | |
| Medical Care | 9.13 | 8.91 | 9.37 | 8.87 | 9.57 | 9.67 | 9.72 | 9.8 | 9.94 | 10.08 | 9.45 | 9.28 | 8.81 | 9.15 | 9.28 | 7.39 | 8.73 | 7.85 | 7.16 | 6.78 | 5.76 | 5.96 | 5.84 | 6.56 | 7.97 | 7.61 | 7.4 | 9.07 | 8.69 | 8.12 | 6.8 | 8.64 | 9.08 | 9.1 | 9.11 | 8.84 | 9.24 | |
| College Education | 6.08 | 5.82 | 5.72 | 8.03 | 8.78 | 9.02 | 9.14 | 9.03 | 8.28 | 8.39 | 8.23 | 7.02 | 7.81 | 8.68 | 9.12 | 7.52 | 9.09 | 6.72 | 6.88 | 5.95 | 5.67 | 6.73 | 5.69 | 5.91 | 5.86 | 7.15 | 5.34 | 8.45 | 9.02 | 6.54 | 5.82 | 5.94 | 6.3 | 5.82 | 5.98 | 5.83 | 8.2 | |
| Rent | 6.58 | 5.94 | 8.28 | 7.41 | 5.95 | 7.09 | 5.88 | 6.82 | 7.66 | 8.27 | 7.18 | 6.97 | 5.99 | 6.97 | 9.05 | 8.4 | 9.02 | 7.17 | 6.7 | 5.96 | 5.54 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.26 | 7.31 | 7.14 | 6.51 | 9.08 | 9.12 | 8.74 | 6.13 | 6.39 | 7.35 | 7.97 | 9.09 | 9.09 | 9.2 | |
| Gold | 4.72 | 4.64 | 5.25 | 5.73 | 5.76 | 5.89 | 5.41 | 5.91 | 5.78 | 5.83 | 5.99 | 5.82 | 5.24 | 5.15 | 5.52 | 5.28 | 5.61 | 5.21 | 5.08 | 4.71 | 4.67 | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.6 | 4.74 | 4.76 | 4.28 | 4.77 | 4.81 | 4.75 | 4.47 | 4.64 | 4.79 | 4.52 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.71 |
Latest reading
Median stood at 3.58% in Aug 2026. That is −0.1 pp from Jul 2026 and +0.4 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jun 2013 to Aug 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Survey of Consumer Expectations).
- Latest
- 3.58%
- Aug 2026
- vs previous period
- −0.1 pp
- Jul 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +0.4 pp
About this data
US household inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey. This monthly dataset tracks projected price increases at one-, three-, and five-year horizons, along with expected changes for gasoline, food, and rent. It includes medians, percentiles, and uncertainty measures since 2013 from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Frequently asked questions
- What do US household inflation expectations measure?
- They measure projected price increases over one-, three-, and five-year horizons as reported by American households in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- How often is the US household inflation expectations data published?
- The data is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and covers the series starting from 2013.
- What specific breakdowns and categories are included in the survey?
- The table reports the median, 25th and 75th percentiles, mean point forecasts, average uncertainty, and expected price changes for commodities such as gasoline, food, medical care, college education, rent, and gold.
- How do these household expectations differ from market-derived measures?
- Household expectations capture consumer views from survey responses, whereas market-derived measures like TIPS breakeven rates reflect financial market pricing.
