UK perceived inflation over past 12 months
UK perceived inflation over past 12 months stood at 4.86% in Q3 2026, according to Bank of England — statistical and research datasets. It is one of the indicators in the Public inflation expectations table (Value · Quarterly), with a complete series running from Q4 1999 to Q3 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Public inflation expectations table
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perceived and expected inflation | |||||||||||
| Perceived inflation over the past 12 months | 4.86 | 5.03 | 4.63 | 4.69 | 4.82 | 4.72 | 4.87 | 4.81 | 5.23 | 5.48 | |
| Expected inflation over the next 12 months | 3.22 | 3.96 | 3.22 | 3.53 | 3.56 | 3.22 | 3.39 | 2.97 | 2.72 | 2.81 |
Understanding UK perceived inflation over past 12 months
Retrospective price assessments from adults across the United Kingdom form the basis of this measure, which aggregates what respondents believe happened to consumer prices over the preceding twelve months. Unlike its companion series that look forward over one-year, two-year, or five-year horizons, this metric evaluates backward-looking public perception. It does not tally receipts, track a fixed basket of goods, or compile retail sales data; instead, it synthesises subjective household impressions of recent cost-of-living developments.
Readings are gathered quarterly and published without seasonal adjustment, meaning quarter-on-quarter shifts often reflect prominent, high-frequency price movements in groceries or domestic utilities rather than broad underlying macroeconomic trends. Figures are not revised once survey results are finalised. When interpreting this series against official price indices, bear in mind that personal shopping habits, recall bias, and the salience of frequent outlays heavily shape household estimates, causing perception to deviate persistently from formal statistical aggregates.
Frequently asked questions
- How does public perception differ from official consumer price indices?
- Official indices track an expenditure-weighted basket of goods and services, whereas this series reflects unweighted personal recollections of recent price movements across surveyed households.
- Are past perception figures subject to subsequent revisions?
- Quarterly survey releases are final upon publication and do not undergo retrospective statistical revisions.
- Why does this series frequently diverge from published inflation rates?
- Households disproportionately notice price increases in frequently purchased essentials, such as food and energy, which skews subjective recall away from broad statistical averages.