Decision Maker Panel: UK CPI inflation expected in one year
Decision Maker Panel: UK CPI inflation expected in one year stood at 3.33% in Sep 2026, according to Bank of England — Decision Maker Panel survey. It is one of the indicators in the Bank of England business surveys table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from May 2022 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Bank of England business surveys table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation and Bank Rate expectations | |||||||||||
| CPI inflation expected in one year | 3.33 | 3.07 | 2.99 | 3.35 | 3.74 | 3.96 | 3.5 | 2.98 | 2.95 | 3.24 | |
| CPI inflation expected in three years | 2.92 | 2.75 | 2.63 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.82 | 2.82 | 2.72 | 2.69 | 2.93 |
Understanding decision Maker Panel: UK CPI inflation expected in one year
Executive panellists operating throughout the United Kingdom project the average annual rate of consumer price inflation anticipated over a one-year horizon. This indicator captures near-term macroeconomic expectations held by corporate decision-makers, reflecting anticipated pricing behaviour across the United Kingdom economy. Unlike longer-horizon measures, this one-year ahead series is particularly sensitive to immediate policy shifts, energy price adjustments, and short-term supply chain disruptions.
When evaluating these projections, analysts should consider how well-anchored short-term expectations remain relative to official central bank targets. Month-to-month movements can be volatile during periods of high macroeconomic instability, making trend analysis more reliable than single-month observations. Comparisons with household inflation expectations often reveal systematic differences in forecasting horizons and economic literacy between consumers and corporate finance professionals.
Frequently asked questions
- What timeframe does this inflation expectation cover?
- It captures expected consumer price inflation over the succeeding one-year period.
- How does this differ from the three-year inflation expectation series?
- This one-year metric is more susceptible to short-term cost shocks, whereas the three-year series reflects medium-term credibility.
- Do respondents forecast their own prices or economy-wide inflation?
- Respondents forecast economy-wide consumer price index inflation rather than their own specific firm-level price adjustments.