UK expected inflation in following 12 months
UK expected inflation in following 12 months stood at 2.92% in Q3 2026, according to Bank of England — statistical and research datasets. It is one of the indicators in the Public inflation expectations table (Value · Quarterly), with a complete series running from Q1 2009 to Q3 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Public inflation expectations table
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perceived and expected inflation | |||||||||||
| Expected inflation in the following 12 months | 2.92 | 3.51 | 3.17 | 3.34 | 3.4 | 3.19 | 3.19 | 2.83 | 2.6 | 2.65 | |
| Expected inflation in five years | 3.21 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.75 | 3.81 | 3.63 | 3.56 | 3.41 | 3.19 | 3.13 |
Understanding UK expected inflation in following 12 months
Medium-term price expectations across the United Kingdom are charted by looking specifically at the twelve-month window starting one year ahead and concluding two years out. This structural focus isolates the second year of households' outlook, differentiating it from both the immediate twelve-month forecast and longer five-year horizons. The series helps discern whether respondents expect near-term price pressures to persist or dissipate as monetary adjustments take effect.
Because responses are unadjusted for seasonality, readings can display quarterly volatility driven by prevailing economic sentiment at the time of interview. Revisions are not applied after release. When analysing this series, compare it directly with one-year expectations to assess whether the public anticipates a deceleration or acceleration in price movements over the monetary policy transmission horizon.
Frequently asked questions
- Which exact calendar interval does this series track?
- It tracks price changes expected during the twelve-month period that begins one year after the survey date and ends two years after.
- Why isolate the second year instead of viewing a cumulative two-year average?
- Separating the second year reveals whether households believe immediate price pressures will subside or become entrenched over the medium term.
- Are these medium-term expectations revised when new data arrives?
- Survey outputs are final upon release and are never adjusted retrospectively.