UK expected inflation in 5 years
UK expected inflation in 5 years stood at 3.21% in Q3 2026, according to Bank of England — statistical and research datasets. It is one of the indicators in the Public inflation expectations table (Value · Quarterly), with a complete series running from Q1 2009 to Q3 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Public inflation expectations table
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perceived and expected inflation | |||||||||||
| Expected inflation in five years | 3.21 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.75 | 3.81 | 3.63 | 3.56 | 3.41 | 3.19 | 3.13 | |
| Perceived inflation over the past 12 months | 4.86 | 5.03 | 4.63 | 4.69 | 4.82 | 4.72 | 4.87 | 4.81 | 5.23 | 5.48 |
Understanding UK expected inflation in 5 years
Five-year expectations among United Kingdom households provide a measure of long-term belief in price stability, asking respondents to project general inflation half a decade into the future. Unlike shorter-run gauges that reflect transitory shocks to energy or transport, this series gauges the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework over a complete business cycle, showing whether distant inflation expectations remain firmly anchored.
Collected on a quarterly schedule, the series is published on an unadjusted basis and is not subject to retrospective accounting revisions. Analysts should interpret quarter-to-quarter movements with caution, focusing instead on multi-year trends. A persistent departure from the established policy goal highlights structural shifts in public psychology, though individual answers frequently exhibit rounding tendencies around whole numbers.
Frequently asked questions
- What does a five-year expectation reveal that shorter horizons cannot?
- Longer horizons test whether the public expects temporary price shocks to be resolved, indicating how firmly long-run price stability is anchored.
- Do respondents provide precise calculations for five years ahead?
- Survey participants generally give broad estimates, which aggregate into an informative signal of long-range consumer confidence in price stability.
- Is the five-year figure seasonally adjusted?
- No, the raw survey distributions are aggregated directly without seasonal adjustments or retroactive revisions.