UK expected inflation over next 12 months
UK expected inflation over next 12 months stood at 3.22% in Q3 2026, according to Bank of England — statistical and research datasets. It is one of the indicators in the Public inflation expectations table (Value · Quarterly), with a complete series running from Q4 1999 to Q3 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Public inflation expectations table
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perceived and expected inflation | |||||||||||
| Expected inflation over the next 12 months | 3.22 | 3.96 | 3.22 | 3.53 | 3.56 | 3.22 | 3.39 | 2.97 | 2.72 | 2.81 | |
| Expected inflation in the following 12 months | 2.92 | 3.51 | 3.17 | 3.34 | 3.4 | 3.19 | 3.19 | 2.83 | 2.6 | 2.65 |
Understanding UK expected inflation over next 12 months
Short-term consumer anticipation across the United Kingdom is captured by this series, which records the median rate of price change that households foresee over the coming twelve months. While retrospective measures evaluate the year just passed and medium-to-long-term series focus on subsequent years or five-year outlooks, this series captures near-term expectations that directly influence immediate household wage claims and everyday spending decisions.
Survey responses are compiled every quarter and are not seasonally adjusted, leaving the series sensitive to salient news coverage, seasonal heating bills, and immediate fuel costs. Published figures are final and free from retroactive revisions. Users should evaluate shifts across multiple quarters rather than overinterpreting single-period jumps, keeping in mind that public expectations often track perceived recent inflation far more closely than professional macroeconomic forecasts.
Frequently asked questions
- What timeframe does this expectation measure cover?
- Respondents report their anticipated rate of consumer price inflation over the twelve months immediately following the survey date.
- Does this indicator adjust for seasonal fluctuations in household spending?
- No, the series is published on an unadjusted basis and can reflect seasonal shifts in prominent household bills.
- How do short-term household expectations interact with wage bargaining?
- Anticipated cost-of-living increases over the coming year often serve as a psychological baseline for workers when negotiating pay adjustments.