DMP UK 3-year expected CPI inflation
DMP UK 3-year expected CPI inflation stood at 2.92% in Sep 2026, according to Bank of England — Decision Maker Panel survey. It is one of the indicators in the Bank of England business surveys table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from May 2022 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Bank of England business surveys table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation and Bank Rate expectations | |||||||||||
| CPI inflation expected in three years | 2.92 | 2.75 | 2.63 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.82 | 2.82 | 2.72 | 2.69 | 2.93 | |
| Panel's perception of current Bank Rate | 3.74 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.76 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 3.75 | 3.99 |
Understanding DMP UK 3-year expected CPI inflation
Senior business leaders across the United Kingdom quantify their expectations for the average annual rate of consumer price inflation three years into the future. This medium-term horizon provides insight into the perceived credibility of monetary policy and the long-term anchoring of inflation expectations across the United Kingdom. It differs from near-term measures by filtering out transient cost shocks, supply bottlenecks, and immediate pricing adjustments.
Interpreting these multi-year figures requires assessing whether structural shifts in the economic environment are altering long-term corporate outlooks. Because three-year horizons are inherently difficult to predict, respondents may rely on prevailing policy targets as a default anchor. Analysts frequently use this series to evaluate whether short-term inflationary pressures risk becoming embedded in long-term pricing psychology.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the three-year expected inflation series capture?
- It measures the average annual consumer price inflation rate that firms anticipate three years ahead.
- Why is the three-year horizon important for analysts?
- It indicates whether long-term inflation expectations remain anchored and resistant to temporary economic shocks.
- How does this series compare to the one-year expectation?
- The three-year measure typically exhibits less month-to-month volatility because respondents look past immediate cost fluctuations.