UK net expecting interest rates to rise
UK net expecting interest rates to rise stood at 40 Net balance % in Q3 2026, according to Bank of England — statistical and research datasets. It is one of the indicators in the Public inflation expectations table (Value · Quarterly), with a complete series running from Q4 1999 to Q3 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Public inflation expectations table
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attitudes to the inflation target and the Bank of England | |||||||||||
| Net expecting interest rates to rise | 40 | 42 | 2 | 13 | 4 | -1 | 5 | -1 | -9 | 6 | |
| Net satisfaction with the Bank of England | 5 | -2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 4 | -4 |
Understanding UK net expecting interest rates to rise
Anticipated movements in official borrowing charges across the United Kingdom are summarised by subtracting the share of surveyed adults forecasting lower rates over the coming year from the proportion anticipating increases. This net balance abstracts from the magnitude of monetary adjustments, registering purely qualitative directional beliefs rather than specific basis-point forecasts. While neighbouring rows in the release scrutinise public expectations regarding consumer price movements or track explicit approval of monetary custodians, this metric isolates public views on the interest rate trajectory itself. The measure excludes individuals who foresee stationary costs, those providing no view, and any financial-market pricing derived from interbank markets or wholesale derivative contracts.
Quarterly responses are derived from representative public sampling and are presented without seasonal adjustment, meaning quarterly shifts frequently reflect prevailing media discussion and prominent policy announcements rather than underlying seasonal rhythms. Survey returns represent final polling results that are not subject to retrospective revision cycles, eliminating retrospective statistical adjustments. Because net balances capture qualitative distribution rather than quantitative increments, quarter-on-quarter movements must be evaluated as shifts in consensus direction rather than signals of the eventual scale of monetary tightening. Analysts should avoid equating a high net balance with market-implied policy rates, as public expectations regularly diverge from professional economic forecasts.
Frequently asked questions
- How is the net balance calculated for this interest rate indicator?
- The metric subtracts the percentage of survey respondents anticipating a fall in borrowing costs over the subsequent twelve months from the percentage expecting a rise.
- Does a positive figure signify an expectation of larger rate adjustments?
- A positive reading indicates only that more respondents anticipate higher rates rather than lower rates, without conveying the expected numerical magnitude or timing.
- Can these public forecasts be substituted for wholesale financial market expectations?
- These qualitative household survey responses reflect consumer sentiment and do not track quantitative market-implied yield curves or interbank lending projections.