UK house price inflation forecast: fourth quarter, next year
UK house price inflation forecast: fourth quarter, next year stood at 1.67 in May 2026, according to HM Treasury — Forecasts for the UK economy. It is one of the indicators in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Nov 2010 to May 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table
| Indicator | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House price inflation, fourth quarter | |||||||||||
| Forecast for the next year | 1.67 | 1.82 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 2.37 | 2.05 | 2.54 | 2.72 | 2.79 | ||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.72 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 2.23 | 1.97 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.51 | 1.92 | 1.71 |
Understanding UK house price inflation forecast: fourth quarter, next year
Private sector forecasting houses aggregate their medium-term property market projections to estimate the anticipated annual percentage variation in residential real estate valuations across the United Kingdom for the subsequent calendar year's final quarter. By extending the horizon past the immediate annual cycle, this measure captures broader structural trends in housing supply constraints, demographic pressures and anticipated borrowing costs. Unlike near-term residential forecasts that lean heavily on pipeline mortgage approvals already in motion, this twelve-month-ahead perspective relies on macroeconomic assumptions regarding interest rate trajectories, real disposable income growth and broader financial stability across the United Kingdom.
Evaluating these forward-looking estimates involves acknowledging that longer-horizon forecasts inherently carry wider confidence intervals due to compounding uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions. Analysts should monitor how these projections evolve across successive monthly consensus publications to identify whether forecasters are systematically revising expectations upwards or downwards in response to monetary policy shifts. When benchmarking these forecasts against actual outturns, researchers must account for potential structural breaks in the underlying property price series caused by regulatory interventions or taxation changes affecting the housing market.
Frequently asked questions
- What timeframe does this house price inflation forecast cover?
- It covers the projected percentage change in residential property prices during the fourth quarter of the next calendar year relative to the same period twelve months prior.
- Why do these extended forecasts differ from current-year estimates?
- Extended forecasts rely more heavily on macroeconomic assumptions about interest rates and income growth rather than existing mortgage pipeline data, introducing greater uncertainty.
- How should analysts use successive monthly publications of this series?
- Successive publications reveal the trajectory of market sentiment, showing whether independent forecasters are collectively revising their medium-term expectations as new economic data emerges.