UK GDP growth forecast: next year
UK GDP growth forecast: next year stood at 1.12 in May 2026, according to HM Treasury — Forecasts for the UK economy. It is one of the indicators in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Nov 2010 to May 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table
| Indicator | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | |||||||||||
| Forecast for the next year | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.09 | 1.09 | ||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.85 | 0.75 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.24 | 1.2 |
Understanding UK GDP growth forecast: next year
External forecasting panels combine their macroeconomic models to estimate the expected annual expansion rate of total economic output across the united kingdom for the succeeding calendar period. By looking further ahead than its immediate sibling metric, this indicator captures medium-term structural expectations rather than near-term cyclical momentum, relying on assumptions about productivity growth and monetary stance rather than realised quarterly outcomes. The data point represents an arithmetic mean derived from a survey of independent private and public sector economists.
Evaluating this forward-looking estimate necessitates recognising that forecasting error widens considerably over longer horizons, particularly during periods of heightened international volatility. Users should examine the dispersion among participating institutions rather than focusing solely on the average figure, as wide spreads indicate deep uncertainty regarding structural conditions. Comparing this metric directly with short-term indicators often misleads analysts who fail to account for the dampening effect of projected policy adjustments over extended timeframes.
Frequently asked questions
- What differentiates the next year forecast from the current year projection?
- The next year series looks further ahead into the subsequent calendar period, involving greater reliance on structural economic assumptions.
- Do all participating forecasters use identical models for the succeeding period?
- No, each institution applies its own proprietary methodology, ranging from large-scale econometric models to simpler time-series frameworks.
- How does this forecast treat anticipated fiscal and monetary policy shifts?
- Participants incorporate their own assumptions regarding future interest rate paths and government spending announcements into their individual submissions.