UK private consumption growth forecast: current year
UK private consumption growth forecast: current year stood at 0.7 in May 2026, according to HM Treasury — Forecasts for the UK economy. It is one of the indicators in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Oct 2010 to May 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table
| Indicator | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private consumption growth | |||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.7 | 0.71 | 1 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.9 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.99 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.09 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 1.15 | 1.2 | 1.28 | 1.29 |
Understanding UK private consumption growth forecast: current year
Surveyed macroeconomic analysts pool their household expenditure models to project the annual percentage variation in total consumer spending across the united kingdom for the current calendar period. This indicator isolates the expenditure side of the economy, capturing all goods and services purchased by households and non-profit institutions serving households, thereby excluding government consumption and corporate capital formation. The reported figure reflects the consensus view of retail demand dynamics derived from monthly submissions by independent forecasting houses.
Reading this metric requires accounting for seasonal spending spikes, particularly around year-end retail periods, which heavily influence consumer-facing sectors. Revisions to historical retail sales data frequently alter the baseline from which forecasters project the remainder of the annual cycle, causing abrupt shifts in the consensus. Analysts must avoid confusing this volume-based or expenditure-weighted measure with nominal retail turnover figures that remain unadjusted for price inflation.
Frequently asked questions
- Does private consumption growth include housing purchases?
- No, residential property purchases are treated as fixed investment, though imputed rent for owner-occupiers is included in overall consumption frameworks.
- How do inflation expectations affect this consumption forecast?
- Forecasters typically adjust their volume consumption projections downward when expected price rises erode household purchasing power.
- Is this series adjusted for price changes?
- Yes, consensus private consumption growth reflects real expenditure changes rather than nominal spending values.