UK private consumption growth forecast: next year
UK private consumption growth forecast: next year stood at 1.09 in May 2026, according to HM Treasury — Forecasts for the UK economy. It is one of the indicators in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Nov 2010 to May 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table
| Indicator | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private consumption growth | |||||||||||
| Forecast for the next year | 1.09 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 1.15 | 1.2 | 1.28 | 1.29 | ||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.7 | 0.71 | 1 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.9 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.99 |
Understanding UK private consumption growth forecast: next year
Professional economic forecasting groups aggregate their consumer expenditure models to estimate the annual percentage expansion in household and non-profit spending across the united kingdom for the succeeding calendar period. Standing apart from current-period household metrics, this forward-looking measure incorporates assumptions regarding wage growth, household debt burdens, and consumer confidence over an extended horizon. The consensus figure merges diverse projections into a single benchmark reflecting expected retail and service demand conditions.
Interpreting this indicator demands caution regarding structural shifts in savings behaviour that forecasters may misjudge during turning points in the economic cycle. Analysts should review the spread of individual forecasts to gauge whether the consensus reflects a broad agreement or a polarised set of expectations regarding household resilience. Comparing this series with near-term consumption indicators highlights how rapidly sentiment can alter medium-term spending projections.
Frequently asked questions
- What primary factors drive the consensus for next year private consumption?
- Forecasters heavily weigh projected disposable income growth, labour market conditions, and household savings ratios.
- Does this series capture changes in consumer credit availability?
- Indirectly, as participating institutions factor lending conditions into their individual household expenditure models.
- Why might this forecast diverge significantly from gross domestic product projections?
- Household consumption can grow at a faster or slower rate than overall output depending on the contribution of net trade and government spending.