UK GDP growth forecast: current year
UK GDP growth forecast: current year stood at 0.85 in May 2026, according to HM Treasury — Forecasts for the UK economy. It is one of the indicators in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Oct 2010 to May 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consensus forecasts (HM Treasury) table
| Indicator | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | |||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.85 | 0.75 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.24 | 1.2 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
Understanding UK GDP growth forecast: current year
Independent economic organisations aggregate their macroeconomic frameworks to project the average annual percentage change in total economic output across the united kingdom for the current calendar period. This aggregate indicator encompasses all value generated by domestic production, services, and industrial output within the national boundary, distinguishing it from sibling measures that isolate specific expenditure components like consumption or investment. The compilation pools dozens of independent city forecasters, removing individual outliers to establish a central benchmark.
Interpreting this projection requires accounting for the elapsed months within the annual cycle, because early-period estimates rely heavily on partial data while late-period estimates incorporate substantial realised quarters. Analysts should compare successive monthly publications to observe how external shocks alter professional expectations rather than treating the consensus figure as a hard factual measurement. A common pitfall involves contrasting these calendar-year averages directly with four-quarter growth rates published in official statistical releases.
Frequently asked questions
- How often is the current year growth forecast updated?
- The consensus figure is recalculated monthly as participating independent forecasters submit revised projections to the Treasury.
- Does this series cover the entire united kingdom economy?
- Yes, the consensus output projection spans all constituent nations and regions within the sovereign territory.
- Why does the forecast for the current year change significantly between months?
- New official national accounts releases and shifting global economic conditions prompt forecasters to adjust their remaining quarterly expectations.