UK economic forecasts consensus
The average of independent forecasters' projections for the UK economy, compiled each month by HM Treasury since 2010: GDP and its expenditure components, inflation, earnings, unemployment, house prices, Bank Rate, sterling, oil prices, the current account and public sector net borrowing, for the current and the next year.
| Indicator | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | 07-2023 | 06-2023 | 05-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output and demand13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GDP growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.85 | 0.75 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.24 | 1.2 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.4 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.07 | -0.1 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.09 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.3 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.84 | ||||
| Private consumption growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.7 | 0.71 | 1 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.9 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.27 | 1.38 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.6 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 0.03 | -0.08 | -0.3 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.09 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 1.15 | 1.2 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.52 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.5 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.46 | 0.43 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.69 | ||||
| Government consumption growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.92 | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.69 | 2.03 | 1.99 | 1.73 | 1.62 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 2.01 | 2.85 | 2.68 | 2.66 | 3.13 | 2.38 | 2.25 | 2.01 | 2.06 | 1.82 | 1.52 | 1.68 | 1.56 | 1.74 | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.51 | -0.18 | -0 | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.57 | -0.71 | -0.35 | 1.22 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.63 | 1.66 | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 2.13 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 1.9 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 2.95 | 2.15 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.39 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.96 | ||||
| Fixed investment growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.12 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 1.81 | 1.76 | 2.96 | 2.67 | 2.14 | 1.87 | 2.11 | 2.24 | 2.2 | 1.78 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 1.17 | 1.37 | 1.23 | 0.8 | 1.18 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.61 | 0.58 | -0.24 | -0.89 | -0.58 | -1 | -2.01 | 2.32 | 2.31 | 2.14 | 1.54 | 1.05 | 0.84 | -0.1 | -0.38 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.64 | 1.86 | 2.49 | 2.28 | 1.92 | 1.74 | 1.47 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.21 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.4 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.99 | -1.72 | -0.98 | -0.8 | -0.47 | 0.56 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.65 | ||||
| Business investment growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | -0.79 | -0.48 | 0.13 | 0.67 | 0.76 | 2.98 | 2.81 | 2.44 | 1.96 | 2.79 | 3.03 | 3.4 | 1.64 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 1.3 | 1.55 | 1.35 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.4 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.02 | -1 | -1.5 | -1.32 | -2.12 | -3.28 | 5.15 | 5.06 | 3.49 | 3.13 | 1.04 | 0.28 | -0.89 | -0.87 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.15 | 0.93 | 1.87 | 1.69 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.81 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.67 | 1.55 | 1.35 | 1.1 | 1.48 | 1.13 | 1.46 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.5 | 1.66 | 1.88 | -3.12 | -1.59 | -0.9 | -1.23 | -1.32 | -1.17 | -0.73 | 0.07 | ||||
| Domestic demand growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.89 | 0.9 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.7 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 2.05 | 1.98 | 1.82 | 1.8 | 1.77 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.66 | 1.72 | 2 | 1.89 | 2.04 | 1.59 | 1.16 | 0.68 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.78 | 0.61 | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.3 | -0.01 | -0.18 | -0.58 | -0.92 | -1.11 | -1.15 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.49 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.45 | 1.74 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.4 | 1.44 | 1.4 | 1.33 | 0.45 | 0.66 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 0.82 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.76 | ||||
| Exports growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.09 | 1 | 0.93 | 1.2 | 1.37 | 2.99 | 3 | 2.36 | 2 | 1.54 | 0.51 | 0.5 | 0.26 | -0.48 | -0.62 | 0.33 | 1.03 | -1.92 | -1.9 | -1.09 | -0.59 | -0.83 | -1.01 | -0.96 | -0.93 | 0.04 | -0.62 | 0.41 | 0.96 | -0.79 | -1.59 | -1.78 | -2.52 | -2.05 | -1.64 | -1.14 | 1.67 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.76 | 1.77 | 1.16 | 1.38 | 1.47 | 1.28 | 1.07 | 0.78 | 1.01 | 1.18 | 1.23 | 1.97 | 2.2 | 1.66 | 1.4 | 2.17 | 2.07 | 2.11 | 1.79 | 1.68 | 1.76 | 2.09 | 2.24 | 2.21 | 1.16 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.6 | 1.99 | 1.73 | 1.53 | 1.45 | ||||
| Imports growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.6 | 1.51 | 1.45 | 3.84 | 3.99 | 4.38 | 4.49 | 4.07 | 3.15 | 3.2 | 2.76 | 2.12 | 1.93 | 2.07 | 2.36 | 2.48 | 1.31 | 1.94 | 1.36 | -0.27 | -1.92 | -1.33 | -0.74 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.9 | 1 | -1.45 | -2.44 | -3.37 | -5.04 | -5.58 | -5.7 | -5.52 | -2.26 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 2.1 | 1.94 | 2.1 | 2.15 | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.64 | 1.46 | 1.35 | 1.04 | 1.23 | 1.48 | 1.63 | 2.01 | 2.33 | 2.71 | 2 | 2.54 | 2.7 | 2.76 | 2.47 | 2.36 | 2.14 | 2.22 | 2.3 | 2.32 | 1.26 | 1.49 | 1.56 | 1.79 | 1.64 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 1.19 | ||||
| Net trade contribution to GDP growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | -0.43 | -0.39 | -0.45 | -0.16 | -0.12 | -0.39 | -0.46 | -0.8 | -0.94 | -0.95 | -0.95 | -1 | -0.94 | -0.95 | -0.81 | -0.63 | -0.55 | -1.46 | -1.16 | -1.17 | -0.75 | -0.2 | 0.23 | 0.07 | -0.14 | -0.2 | -0.45 | -0.24 | -0.13 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 1.14 | 1.36 | 1.54 | 1.12 | |
| Forecast for the next year | -0.39 | -0.32 | -0.36 | -0.26 | -0.14 | -0.13 | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.2 | -0.19 | -0.18 | -0.21 | -0.24 | -0.13 | -0.23 | -0.5 | -0.44 | -0.37 | -0.44 | -0.4 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.27 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.13 | -0.34 | -0.39 | -0.4 | -0.14 | 0.09 | 0.14 | -0.17 | ||||
| Nominal GDP growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 4.22 | 3.62 | 3.57 | 3.79 | 3.85 | 5.3 | 5.27 | 5.04 | 4.99 | 5.01 | 5.16 | 5.14 | 4.77 | 4.72 | 4.39 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 3.78 | 3.42 | 3.47 | 92.25 | 3.82 | 3.23 | 3.09 | 2.73 | 2.71 | 2.68 | 2.72 | 3.46 | 8.04 | 6.95 | 6.8 | 5.56 | 5.96 | 5.55 | 5.45 | 5.19 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 3.9 | 3.99 | 3.72 | 3.92 | 3.97 | 4.03 | 3.74 | 3.57 | 3.56 | 3.57 | 3.65 | 3.61 | 3.55 | 3.83 | 3.92 | 4.07 | 3.67 | 3.43 | 108.35 | 3.8 | 3.39 | 3.47 | 3.23 | 3.29 | 3.27 | 3.17 | 3.36 | 3.63 | 3.78 | 3.38 | 3.81 | 3.91 | 4.22 | 4.21 | ||||
| Output gap2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | -0.32 | -0.56 | -0.61 | -0.84 | -0.62 | -0.4 | -0.42 | -0.32 | -0.41 | -0.34 | -0.26 | -0.36 | -0.22 | -0.32 | -0.5 | -0.08 | -0.02 | 0.13 | -0.06 | 0.1 | -0.68 | 0.09 | -0.06 | -0.12 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.11 | -0.23 | -0.46 | 0.04 | -0.22 | -0.32 | -0.66 | -0.72 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.37 | |
| Forecast for the next year | -0.41 | -0.59 | -0.56 | -0.74 | -0.68 | -0.69 | -0.5 | -0.59 | -0.56 | -0.52 | -0.71 | -0.61 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.55 | 0.16 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.15 | -0.16 | -0.58 | -1.03 | -1.01 | -1.25 | -1.15 | -1.22 | -1.07 | -0.7 | ||||
| Manufacturing output growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.5 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.53 | -0.21 | 0.1 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.15 | -0.04 | -0 | 0.23 | 1.26 | 0.77 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 1.01 | 0.8 | 0.65 | 0.24 | -0.61 | -0.53 | -0.88 | -1.22 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 0.74 | 0.84 | 1.03 | 1.12 | 0.34 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.5 | 0.89 | 1.12 | 1.69 | 1.7 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.8 | 0.71 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.2 | 0.29 | 0.9 | 0.41 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.33 | ||||
| Real household disposable income growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.65 | 0.8 | 0.81 | 1.66 | 1.71 | 1.49 | 1.4 | 1.35 | 1.44 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.48 | 1.06 | 1.16 | 1.47 | 3.3 | 3.01 | 3.25 | 2.22 | 2.36 | 2.19 | 1.84 | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.69 | 1.12 | 0.94 | -0 | -0.03 | -0.2 | -0.02 | -0.73 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 0.47 | 0.6 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 0.79 | 0.8 | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.58 | 1.38 | 1.68 | 1.72 | 1.61 | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.29 | 1.18 | 1.09 | 0.86 | 1.33 | 1.61 | ||||
| Inflation and earnings4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CPI inflation, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 3.52 | 3.19 | 2.47 | 2.2 | 2.17 | 3.53 | 3.47 | 3.56 | 3.57 | 3.33 | 3.21 | 3.19 | 3.03 | 3.01 | 3 | 2.77 | 2.67 | 2.45 | 2.49 | 2.57 | 2.63 | 2.45 | 2.39 | 2.35 | 2.15 | 2.1 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.37 | 4.42 | 4.63 | 4.5 | 4.63 | 4.55 | 4.88 | 4.69 | 4.08 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 2.15 | 2.1 | 2.14 | 2.21 | 2.24 | 2.32 | 2.37 | 2.35 | 2.3 | 2.33 | 2.35 | 2.33 | 2.3 | 2.34 | 2.25 | 2.46 | 2.29 | 2.19 | 2.18 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 2.16 | 2.15 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.1 | 2.62 | 2.65 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 2.68 | 2.7 | 2.88 | 2.5 | ||||
| RPI inflation, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 4.6 | 4.28 | 3.19 | 3.06 | 3 | 4.44 | 4.41 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 3.99 | 3.99 | 4.01 | 3.8 | 3.78 | 3.83 | 3.64 | 3.33 | 3.68 | 3.68 | 3.82 | 3.7 | 3.42 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 3.23 | 3.06 | 3.05 | 3.14 | 3.35 | 6.24 | 6.58 | 6.41 | 6.77 | 6.54 | 6.73 | 6.39 | 5.88 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 3.32 | 3.18 | 3.08 | 3.1 | 3.11 | 3.3 | 3.33 | 3.3 | 3.25 | 3.18 | 3.34 | 3.22 | 3.16 | 3.16 | 3.18 | 3.25 | 3.12 | 3.09 | 3.04 | 2.78 | 2.82 | 2.95 | 2.85 | 2.55 | 2.62 | 2.56 | 3.68 | 3.74 | 3.56 | 3.63 | 3.55 | 3.62 | 3.59 | 3.25 | ||||
| Average earnings growth, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 3.19 | 3.33 | 3.28 | 3.19 | 3.19 | 4.23 | 4.14 | 3.83 | 4.01 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.91 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.48 | 3.53 | 4.75 | 4.71 | 4.66 | 4.69 | 4.73 | 4.54 | 4.4 | 4.19 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.79 | 3.76 | 6.68 | 6.53 | 6.36 | 6.32 | 5.32 | 5.32 | 5.16 | 5.09 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 3 | 3 | 3.01 | 3.05 | 3.18 | 3.19 | 3.25 | 3.24 | 3.25 | 3.1 | 3.19 | 3.13 | 3.11 | 3.05 | 3.09 | 3.44 | 3.49 | 3.54 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.06 | 3.02 | 2.92 | 2.99 | 2.96 | 2.86 | 3.73 | 3.66 | 3.47 | 3.6 | 3.39 | 3.48 | 3.24 | 3.35 | ||||
| House price inflation, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.72 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 2.23 | 1.97 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.51 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 1.51 | 1.67 | 1.26 | 1.63 | 1.98 | 1.74 | 2.22 | 3.19 | 2.79 | 2.56 | 2 | 1.42 | 0.31 | 0.12 | -1.58 | -1.78 | -1.51 | -0.99 | -1.07 | -3.34 | -4.33 | -4.39 | -4.44 | -5.5 | -5.48 | -5.89 | -5.61 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.67 | 1.82 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 2.37 | 2.05 | 2.54 | 2.72 | 2.79 | 3.01 | 2.84 | 2.28 | 2.03 | 2.45 | 2.34 | 1.97 | 2.49 | 2.81 | 2.31 | 2.32 | 2.33 | 2.29 | 1.47 | 1.37 | 1.42 | 0.89 | -2.34 | -2.17 | -1.46 | -2.44 | -2.65 | -2.73 | -1.92 | -2.41 | ||||
| Labour market4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| LFS unemployment rate, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 5.37 | 5.39 | 5.28 | 5.15 | 5.12 | 5 | 4.92 | 4.83 | 4.84 | 4.84 | 4.76 | 4.74 | 4.69 | 4.68 | 4.66 | 4.57 | 4.47 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.41 | 4.47 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.4 | 4.33 | 4.38 | 4.59 | 4.63 | 4.31 | 4.42 | 4.4 | 4.32 | 4.14 | 4.12 | 4.14 | 4.24 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 5.21 | 5.22 | 5.11 | 4.97 | 5.04 | 4.94 | 4.85 | 4.86 | 4.86 | 4.79 | 4.77 | 4.71 | 4.73 | 4.66 | 4.58 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 4.4 | 4.43 | 4.51 | 4.51 | 4.47 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 4.36 | 4.57 | 4.66 | 4.65 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 4.31 | 4.38 | 4.35 | 4.4 | ||||
| Claimant count, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.78 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.8 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.8 | 1.76 | 1.7 | 1.83 | 1.64 | 1.48 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.53 | 1.5 | 2.06 | 2.05 | 2.05 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.81 | 1.79 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.8 | 1.77 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.66 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 2.06 | 2.04 | 2.05 | ||||
| Employment growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 1.5 | 1.53 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.14 | 0.93 | 0.9 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.8 | 0.08 | 0.09 | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.02 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.06 | -0 | -0.03 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 1.21 | 0.97 | 0.52 | 0.14 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 0.62 | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.5 | 0.52 | 0.41 | -0.1 | -0.01 | -0.06 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0 | -0.06 | 0.05 | ||||
| Productivity growth (output per hour)2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.4 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.6 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.63 | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.3 | 0.41 | 0.5 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.56 | -0.32 | -0.42 | -0.31 | -0.54 | -0.81 | -0.58 | -0.66 | -0.16 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.81 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.5 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.7 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.1 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.71 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.49 | 0.6 | ||||
| Interest rates, sterling and oil4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bank Rate, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 3.76 | 3.61 | 3.39 | 3.33 | 3.37 | 3.82 | 3.86 | 3.93 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 3.88 | 3.89 | 3.85 | 3.89 | 3.9 | 3.85 | 3.84 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 4.77 | 4.7 | 4.68 | 4.67 | 4.64 | 4.47 | 4.41 | 4.43 | 4.42 | 4.47 | 5.25 | 5.32 | 5.39 | 5.58 | 5.63 | 5.46 | 4.75 | 4.41 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 3.47 | 3.42 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.41 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.47 | 3.5 | 3.56 | 3.53 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 3.52 | 3.8 | 3.82 | 3.79 | 3.82 | 3.77 | 3.78 | 3.73 | 3.6 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 3.42 | 4.67 | 4.71 | 4.69 | 4.9 | 4.98 | 4.8 | 4.16 | 3.6 | ||||
| Asset Purchase Facility holdings, fourth quarter2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 490.34 | 491.34 | 485.14 | 485.14 | 488.24 | 565.52 | 566.54 | 566.54 | 567.12 | 567.14 | 573.99 | 573.85 | 570.4 | 567.84 | 570.34 | 567.38 | 551.52 | 663.83 | 662.87 | 668.87 | 676.78 | 668.57 | 668.49 | 672.02 | 672.75 | 674.75 | 671.6 | 570.7 | 670.7 | 768.1 | 773.01 | 766.66 | 769.48 | 776.97 | 771.78 | 764.11 | 769.61 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 436.33 | 436.33 | 431.33 | 431.33 | 488.24 | 490.29 | 494.43 | 498.21 | 496.57 | 483.44 | 483.3 | 479.85 | 475.71 | 487.38 | 484.42 | 562.52 | 562.69 | 571.19 | 567.06 | 570.11 | 566.28 | 570.23 | 567.62 | 569.63 | 572.46 | 489.95 | 670.7 | 683.55 | 675.26 | 680.49 | 684.23 | 679.18 | 683.41 | 687.48 | ||||
| Sterling effective exchange rate index (Jan 2005 = 100)2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 83.88 | 83.72 | 83.7 | 83.74 | 83.66 | 85.07 | 84.49 | 84.59 | 84.2 | 84.65 | 84.83 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 83.17 | 83.66 | 83.66 | 84.01 | 84.18 | 84.14 | 84.43 | 83.29 | 83.68 | 82.8 | 82.71 | 81.96 | 81.29 | 81.41 | 80.91 | 80.74 | 80.98 | 80.39 | 80.5 | 81.11 | 80.07 | 80.06 | 78.81 | 77.84 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 83.5 | 83.57 | 83.3 | 83.23 | 83.94 | 84.19 | 84.66 | 84.57 | 85.01 | 85.17 | 84.68 | 84.7 | 82.94 | 83.5 | 83.67 | 84.22 | 83.73 | 83.96 | 83.36 | 83.59 | 82.86 | 82.72 | 82.27 | 81.26 | 81.62 | 81.38 | 80.44 | 80.02 | 80.07 | 80.67 | 79.8 | 79.88 | 78.97 | 78.23 | ||||
| Brent oil price2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 90.18 | 85.04 | 68.31 | 63.61 | 61.87 | 67.94 | 67.47 | 67.93 | 67.52 | 68.08 | 67.77 | 66.87 | 67.09 | 68.46 | 74.4 | 75.66 | 75.38 | 80.22 | 80.18 | 80.62 | 83.99 | 83.94 | 83.7 | 84.04 | 83.68 | 83.2 | 81.72 | 81.14 | 80.98 | 83.27 | 82.91 | 83.29 | 83.34 | 81.4 | 80.68 | 81.77 | 83.71 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 78.63 | 76.11 | 64.82 | 62.44 | 62.47 | 63.19 | 63.88 | 63.75 | 64.54 | 63.9 | 62.95 | 64.57 | 65.9 | 70.66 | 71.73 | 74.94 | 75.56 | 77.09 | 79.08 | 81.16 | 80.93 | 81.49 | 81.21 | 81.03 | 78.51 | 78.8 | 83.34 | 85.42 | 86.48 | 85.37 | 80.05 | 77.37 | 80.37 | 80.34 | ||||
| Current account, public borrowing and world trade3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current account balance2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | -85.48 | -82.89 | -78.93 | -71.46 | -75.79 | -92.45 | -88.79 | -95.25 | -94.99 | -97.45 | -94.81 | -91.77 | -91.02 | -91.91 | -88.18 | -86.6 | -83.09 | -87.34 | -84.4 | -86.85 | -96.31 | -80.32 | -71.93 | -70.52 | -71.06 | -73.33 | -75.19 | -67.72 | -69.31 | -77.6 | -74.58 | -66.12 | -66.61 | -64.03 | -67.47 | -73.97 | -80.53 | |
| Forecast for the next year | -89.78 | -84.76 | -82.17 | -75.48 | -83.48 | -80.09 | -89.34 | -92.77 | -92.29 | -89.62 | -87.3 | -87.72 | -90.87 | -86.76 | -88.36 | -84.15 | -83.72 | -86.64 | -90.9 | -76.44 | -67.41 | -68.17 | -67.78 | -70.09 | -72.81 | -62.55 | -66.5 | -77.09 | -69.58 | -76.95 | -69.66 | -67.12 | -65.3 | -64.79 | ||||
| Public sector net borrowing (fiscal year)2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 126.42 | 127.11 | 117.72 | 117.9 | 137.79 | 135.89 | 127.19 | 126.81 | 124.69 | 124.72 | 130.56 | 131.37 | 124.36 | 130.47 | 122.69 | 118.4 | 117.04 | 124.12 | 116.11 | 122.61 | 114.36 | 106.37 | 108.06 | 98.2 | 100.6 | 107.58 | 108.47 | 117.87 | 130.95 | 128.98 | 129.23 | 125.91 | 130.25 | 132.92 | 130.33 | 132.33 | 131.72 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 110.88 | 116.73 | 106.83 | 106.23 | 117.89 | 118.03 | 109.33 | 109.53 | 107.47 | 107.21 | 112.13 | 113.24 | 106.73 | 108.81 | 104.19 | 101.24 | 101.43 | 105.05 | 104.58 | 99.84 | 97.42 | 91.32 | 95.43 | 88.15 | 90.45 | 91.76 | 92.85 | 97.73 | 102.31 | 101.79 | 100.58 | 97.29 | 98.92 | 97.51 | 95.45 | 98.31 | 93.41 | |
| World trade growth2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forecast for the current year | 1.42 | 1.86 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 0.94 | 3.49 | 3.14 | 2.31 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.81 | 2.68 | 2.48 | 2.65 | 3.14 | 3.91 | 3.65 | 2.92 | 2.32 | 2.29 | 2.34 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.45 | 3.33 | 4.08 | 4.66 | 4.39 | 4.07 | 0.63 | 0.68 | -0.03 | 1.14 | 0.16 | 1.17 | 0.59 | 1.47 | |
| Forecast for the next year | 1.03 | 2.31 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 0.86 | 1.49 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 1.52 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.79 | 3.66 | 3.51 | 3.83 | 3.87 | 3.83 | 3.87 | 6.88 | 6.34 | 6.13 | 6.16 | 7.29 | 7.14 | 7.31 | 4.42 | 4.51 | 5.02 | 4.47 | 5.53 | 4.52 | 3.87 | 3.98 |
Latest reading
Forecast for the current year stood at 0.85 in May 2026. That is +0.1 pp from Apr 2026 and −0.2 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Oct 2010 to May 2026. Source: HM Treasury — Forecasts for the UK economy.
- Latest
- 0.85
- May 2026
- vs previous period
- +0.1 pp
- Apr 2026
- vs a year earlier
- −0.2 pp
About this data
The average of independent forecasters' projections for the UK economy, compiled each month by HM Treasury since 2010: GDP and its expenditure components, inflation, earnings, unemployment, house prices, Bank Rate, sterling, oil prices, the current account and public sector net borrowing, for the current and the next year. Each point is the consensus as it stood in the month of publication.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the UK economic forecasts consensus?
- The UK economic forecasts consensus is a monthly compilation by HM Treasury averaging projections from independent academic, financial, and research institutions for key UK economic indicators.
- Which variables are included in the UK consensus economic forecasts?
- Projections cover UK GDP and expenditure components, inflation, earnings, unemployment, Bank Rate, sterling exchange rates, oil prices, current account balance, and public sector net borrowing.
- What forecast horizons are provided in the UK consensus forecasts table?
- Each monthly publication presents average independent forecast expectations for the UK economy across the current calendar year and the following calendar year.
- How far back does the HM Treasury UK consensus forecast dataset go?
- HM Treasury has compiled and published this monthly survey of independent UK economic forecasts continuously since 2010.
