US Fed Oil and Gas Industry Surveys
The two quarterly surveys that ask oil and gas firms themselves what is happening: the Dallas Fed Energy Survey covering the Eleventh District (Texas, northern Louisiana, southern New Mexico) and the Kansas City Fed Energy Survey covering the Tenth District (Oklahoma, Colorado, Wyoming, western Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, northern New Mexico), each with activity, employment, costs and the WTI and Henry Hub prices firms say they need to drill profitably.
| Indicator | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | Q1-2024 | Q4-2023 | Q3-2023 | Q2-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALLAS FED ENERGY SURVEY (Eleventh District)5 | ||||||||||||||
| All oil and gas firms8 | ||||||||||||||
| Business activity | 46.1 | 21 | -6.2 | -6.5 | -8.1 | 3.8 | 6 | -5.9 | 12.5 | 2 | 3.6 | 10.9 | 0 | |
| Company outlook | 29.3 | 32.2 | -15.2 | -17.6 | -6.4 | -4.9 | 7.1 | -12.1 | 10 | 12 | -12.4 | 36 | -9.1 | |
| Outlook uncertainty | 29.9 | 53.7 | 43.4 | 44.6 | 47.1 | 43.1 | 22.4 | 48.6 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 46.1 | 6.8 | 36.9 | |
| Capital expenditures | 40.9 | 21.2 | -11.6 | -11.6 | -3 | 9.4 | 1.5 | -3.8 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 25.8 | 8.5 | |
| Supplier delivery time | 31.7 | 4.5 | 0.8 | -3.6 | -0.7 | 3.2 | -4.6 | -3.8 | -1.5 | -5 | -2.2 | 0.7 | -4.6 | |
| Number of employees | 4.7 | 0.8 | -10.8 | -1.5 | -6.6 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 13.1 | |
| Employee hours | 11.8 | 12.8 | -9.3 | -3.7 | -5.1 | 0.7 | 0 | -2.3 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 10.5 | |
| Wages and benefits | 26 | 23.5 | 6.2 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 18.6 | 24 | 32.8 | 21.2 | 24.5 | 34.5 | |
| Exploration and production firms13 | ||||||||||||||
| Business activity | 48.2 | 16.6 | -5.6 | -3.2 | -4.4 | 6.9 | 8 | 0 | 14.5 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 22.5 | 1 | |
| Company outlook | 48.2 | 33.3 | -15.2 | -20 | -4.8 | -3.7 | 13.8 | -14.8 | 16.8 | 15.6 | -9 | 46.8 | -8.4 | |
| Outlook uncertainty | 34.1 | 60.4 | 41.6 | 39.8 | 43.9 | 40.9 | 24.1 | 52.7 | 18.9 | 21.1 | 44 | -1 | 41.6 | |
| Oil production | 15 | 0 | -3.4 | -8.6 | -8.9 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 7.9 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 5.3 | 26.5 | 8 | |
| Natural gas production | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0 | -3.2 | -4.5 | 4.8 | -3.5 | -13.3 | 2.3 | -17 | 17.9 | 15.4 | 2.1 | |
| Capital expenditures | 42.7 | 18 | -15.9 | -5.3 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 0 | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 30.7 | 9.9 | |
| Expected capital expenditures next year | 0 | 31.5 | -13.9 | -9.8 | 10 | 18.2 | 24.1 | 12.1 | 16.9 | 36.5 | 1 | 35.7 | 1.9 | |
| Finding and development costs | 40 | 22.3 | 5.7 | 22 | 11.4 | 17.1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 15.7 | 24.2 | 24.4 | 18.3 | 14.9 | |
| Lease operating expenses | 43.7 | 30 | 28.4 | 36.9 | 28.1 | 38.7 | 25.6 | 21.3 | 23.6 | 33.7 | 22.6 | 25.6 | 26 | |
| Supplier delivery time | 43.2 | 0 | -2.3 | -3.3 | -1.1 | 3.6 | -5.9 | -4.5 | 1.1 | -7.5 | -5.3 | 0 | -7 | |
| Number of employees | 0 | -4.5 | -9 | 1.1 | -1.1 | -2.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 10.8 | |
| Employee hours | 12.2 | 8.8 | -5.6 | -3.2 | -1.1 | 1.1 | -2.3 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 0 | 9.3 | 6.9 | |
| Wages and benefits | 23.2 | 22.5 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 21.6 | 24.1 | 16.5 | 24.5 | 34.4 | 14.8 | 20.4 | 28 | |
| Oilfield services firms13 | ||||||||||||||
| Business activity | 42.3 | 30.3 | -7.3 | -13 | -15.6 | -2.3 | 2.2 | -18.1 | 8.5 | -2 | -4.2 | -12.2 | -1.9 | |
| Company outlook | -4.4 | 30 | -15.4 | -13.3 | -9.5 | -7.1 | -4.3 | -6.9 | -2.1 | 4.5 | -18.8 | 14.9 | -10.4 | |
| Outlook uncertainty | 22.2 | 39.6 | 47.5 | 54.4 | 53.4 | 47.6 | 19.2 | 40 | 34 | 30 | 50 | 22.5 | 27.5 | |
| Utilization of equipment | 31.9 | 30.2 | -12.2 | -13 | -4.6 | -4.8 | -4.4 | -20.9 | 10.9 | -4.2 | -8.4 | -4.2 | -7.9 | |
| Operating margin | 52.2 | -7 | -31.7 | -31.8 | -33.4 | -21.5 | -17.8 | -32.6 | -13 | -35.4 | -32 | -30.7 | -21.6 | |
| Input costs | 64.4 | 34.9 | 24.4 | 34.8 | 40 | 30.9 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 42.2 | 31.2 | 21.3 | 33.4 | 41.2 | |
| Prices received for services | 24.5 | 9.3 | -30 | -26.1 | -17.7 | 7.1 | -13 | -2.3 | -4.4 | -6.2 | -6.2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | |
| Capital expenditures | 37.7 | 27.9 | -2.4 | -24.4 | -13.3 | 11.9 | -2.1 | -11.9 | 4.3 | 16.4 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 5.9 | |
| Supplier delivery time | 11.1 | 14.2 | 7.3 | -4.3 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -6.5 | 0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0 | |
| Lag time in delivery of services | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.7 | -6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| Number of employees | 13.3 | 11.6 | -14.6 | -6.5 | -17.7 | 4.7 | -2.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | -2.1 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 17.6 | |
| Employee hours | 11.1 | 20.9 | -17.1 | -4.3 | -13.3 | 0 | 4.3 | -12.1 | 12.8 | 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 17.7 | |
| Wages and benefits | 31.2 | 25.5 | 2.4 | 17.4 | 13.3 | 21.4 | 17 | 22.8 | 23.4 | 30 | 34 | 32.7 | 47.1 | |
| WTI oil price expected at year-end5 | ||||||||||||||
| Average forecast | 80.55 | 74.04 | 62.41 | 63.06 | 68.18 | 68.32 | 71.13 | 72.66 | 78.66 | 80.11 | 77.68 | 87.91 | 77.48 | |
| Median forecast | 80 | 75 | 60 | 63 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 73.25 | 80 | 80 | 78 | 88 | 78 | |
| Highest forecast | 150 | 135 | 82.3 | 80 | 85 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 120 | 110 | 120 | 100 | |
| Lowest forecast | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 53 | 55 | 62.5 | 70 | 51 | 70 | 60 | |
| WTI spot price during the survey period | 87.27 | 94.65 | 59 | 63.8 | 69.81 | 67.6 | 70.66 | 70.82 | 79.94 | 82.52 | 69.77 | 90.29 | 69.89 | |
| Henry Hub gas price expected at year-end5 | ||||||||||||||
| Average forecast | 3.36 | 3.6 | 4.19 | 3.3 | 3.66 | 3.78 | 3.19 | 2.62 | 3.01 | 2.59 | 3.09 | 3.14 | 2.97 | |
| Median forecast | 3.25 | 3.5 | 4 | 3.25 | 3.5 | 3.85 | 3.18 | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Highest forecast | 4.65 | 5.25 | 6.5 | 4.75 | 5 | 5.25 | 4.8 | 4.25 | 4.8 | 7 | 5.3 | 7 | 6 | |
| Lowest forecast | 2 | 2.3 | 1.75 | 2.2 | 1.75 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Henry Hub spot price during the survey period | 3.15 | 3.16 | 4.84 | 2.99 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.04 | 2.23 | 2.61 | 1.44 | 2.48 | 2.68 | 2.03 | |
| KANSAS CITY FED ENERGY SURVEY (Tenth District)4 | ||||||||||||||
| Versus a quarter ago8 | ||||||||||||||
| Drilling/business activity | 18 | 0 | -39 | -16 | -17 | 6 | -13 | -13 | -14 | -13 | -33 | -13 | -19 | |
| Total revenues | 76 | 31 | -33 | -24 | -10 | -9 | -16 | -13 | -10 | 0 | -13 | 13 | -42 | |
| Supplier delivery time | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | -3 | 6 | -10 | -3 | -13 | -16 | -3 | -10 | -21 | |
| Total profits | 64 | 31 | -42 | -29 | -17 | -9 | -23 | -6 | -13 | -6 | -19 | -3 | -39 | |
| Number of employees | 15 | 10 | -3 | -5 | -7 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 27 | |
| Employee hours | 13 | 3 | -9 | -26 | 10 | 12 | 13 | -3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 18 | |
| Wages and benefits | 36 | 39 | 28 | 16 | 23 | 50 | 39 | 19 | 27 | 48 | 32 | 35 | 27 | |
| Access to credit | 15 | -3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -3 | -6 | -3 | 3 | |
| Expected in six months12 | ||||||||||||||
| Drilling/business activity | 12 | 25 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 13 | -3 | 21 | -10 | 7 | 7 | -22 | |
| Total revenues | 0 | 35 | -22 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -3 | -3 | 28 | 13 | 23 | 42 | 3 | |
| Capital expenditures | 15 | 28 | -11 | 0 | -14 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -19 | 7 | 16 | -9 | |
| Supplier delivery time | -3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 0 | -6 | -4 | -13 | -13 | 0 | -42 | |
| Total profits | 0 | 34 | -25 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -10 | 29 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 23 | -3 | |
| Number of employees | 15 | 6 | -6 | -11 | -21 | 18 | 19 | 35 | 28 | 25 | 40 | 19 | 12 | |
| Employee hours | 9 | -3 | -3 | -11 | -14 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 3 | 3 | |
| Wages and benefits | 45 | 29 | 39 | 24 | 17 | 29 | 45 | 45 | 34 | 31 | 55 | 52 | 24 | |
| Access to credit | 18 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 10 | -3 | -3 | 3 | |
| Expected oil prices | -61 | -16 | -23 | -13 | -30 | -21 | -32 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 42 | |
| Expected natural gas prices | 25 | 19 | 15 | 53 | 17 | 21 | 38 | 56 | 86 | 45 | -16 | 50 | 53 | |
| Expected natural gas liquids prices | 9 | 0 | -24 | 22 | -3 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 41 | 16 | -7 | 37 | 31 | |
| Oil prices reported by firms (WTI)6 | ||||||||||||||
| Price needed to be profitable | 66 | 63 | 61 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 62 | 65 | 64 | 65 | 64 | 64 | 63 | |
| Price needed to substantially increase drilling | 83 | 79 | 75 | 78 | 83 | 85 | 84 | 89 | 91 | 90 | 84 | 90 | 85.77 | |
| Expected price in 6 months | 75 | 76 | 57 | 63 | 67 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 79 | 81 | 76 | 91.07 | 74.72 | |
| Expected price in 1 year | 72 | 71 | 62 | 65 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 79 | 88.21 | 78.97 | |
| Expected price in 2 years | 73 | 70 | 69 | 69 | 71 | 72 | 75 | 80 | 83 | 85 | 84 | 87.64 | 82.79 | |
| Expected price in 5 years | 80 | 75 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 79 | 81 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 88 | 93.04 | 87.57 | |
| Natural gas prices reported by firms (Henry Hub)6 | ||||||||||||||
| Price needed to be profitable | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.8 | 3.56 | 3.79 | 3.8 | 3.69 | 3.43 | 3.47 | 3.47 | 3.12 | 3.45 | 3.49 | |
| Price needed to substantially increase drilling | 4.53 | 4.84 | 4.89 | 4.64 | 5.01 | 5.1 | 4.66 | 4.24 | 4.68 | 4.38 | 4.04 | 4.36 | 4.67 | |
| Expected price in 6 months | 3.38 | 3.42 | 3.69 | 3.37 | 3.76 | 3.73 | 3.09 | 2.73 | 3 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.06 | 3 | |
| Expected price in 1 year | 3.53 | 3.66 | 4.05 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 3.36 | 3.05 | 3.1 | 2.71 | 3.04 | 3.34 | 3.33 | |
| Expected price in 2 years | 3.9 | 4 | 4.35 | 3.98 | 4.19 | 4.23 | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.45 | 3.01 | 3.42 | 3.97 | 3.71 | |
| Expected price in 5 years | 4.47 | 4.59 | 4.93 | 4.39 | 4.71 | 4.78 | 3.98 | 3.68 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 3.96 | 4.83 | 3.98 |
Latest reading
Business activity stood at 46.1 Diffusion index in Q2 2026. That is +25.1 Diffusion index from Q1 2026 and +54.2 Diffusion index from a year earlier. The series on this page is quarterly and runs from Q1 2016 to Q2 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Latest
- 46.1 Diffusion index
- Q2 2026
- vs previous period
- +25.1 Diffusion index
- Q1 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +54.2 Diffusion index
About this data
The two quarterly surveys that ask oil and gas firms themselves what is happening: the Dallas Fed Energy Survey covering the Eleventh District (Texas, northern Louisiana, southern New Mexico) and the Kansas City Fed Energy Survey covering the Tenth District (Oklahoma, Colorado, Wyoming, western Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, northern New Mexico), each with activity, employment, costs and the WTI and Henry Hub prices firms say they need to drill profitably.
Frequently asked questions
- What do the Fed oil and gas industry surveys measure?
- They measure quarterly changes reported by energy firms — business activity, capital spending, employment, wages, and the oil and gas prices firms need to drill profitably.
- Who runs these surveys and which areas do they cover?
- The Dallas Fed surveys the Eleventh District (Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico) and the Kansas City Fed surveys the Tenth District. Both are quarterly, from 2014 on this page.
- What is the breakeven price in these surveys?
- It is the oil or gas price firms say they need to profitably drill a new well, or to cover operating costs on an existing well. It is a survey answer, not an accounting figure.
- Why watch these instead of the rig count?
- The rig count records drilling that has already started. These surveys record what firms expect and what price they need, so they lead the rig count by a quarter or more.
