What does the US Business Inflation Expectations table measure?

It measures monthly unit cost expectations over the next 12 months, past cost changes, and diffusion indices for sales and profit margins reported by businesses in the United States.

How often is the Atlanta Fed BIE survey published and how far back does it go?

The data is published monthly by the Atlanta Fed and series coverage begins in 2011.

Which breakdowns and measures are included in the table?

It includes average and median expected percentage changes, uncertainty variance, breakdown ranges from decreases to very strong increases, and diffusion indices relative to normal for sales and profit margins.

How does this survey differ from other US inflation expectation measures?

Unlike household surveys or bond-market breakeven rates that incorporate risk premiums, this survey captures direct expectations from business price setters in the United States.

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US Business Inflation Expectations

Name: US Business Inflation Expectations
Creator: Atlanta FED (Business Inflation Expectations)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conducts two monthly surveys based on the same questionnaire: Business Inflation Expectations, which tracks firms' unit cost expectations for the past and next 12 months, and the Survey of Business Uncertainty, which measures expected revenue and employment growth alongside the degree of uncertainty surrounding those expectations as the sole metric capturing the dispersion of the distribution rather than merely its central tendency.

Source: Atlanta FED (Business Inflation Expectations)Last updated: Sep 22, 2026, 13:26Curated by Bui Thanh PhucAbout this data ↓

Indicator	08-2026	07-2026	06-2026	05-2026	04-2026	03-2026	02-2026	01-2026	12-2025	11-2025	10-2025	09-2025	08-2025	07-2025	06-2025	05-2025	04-2025	03-2025	02-2025	01-2025	12-2024	11-2024	10-2024	09-2024	08-2024	07-2024	06-2024	05-2024	04-2024	03-2024	02-2024	01-2024	12-2023	11-2023	10-2023	09-2023	08-2023
UNIT COST, NEXT 12 MONTHS EXPECTATIONS3
Average increase	2.16	2.16	2.33	2.36	2.28	2.12	1.94	2	2.24	2.18	2.27	2.26	2.26	2.29	2.42	2.54	2.76	2.49	2.27	2.22	2.04	2.16	2.22	2.11	2.15	2.39	2.28	2.31	2.28	2.39	2.29	2.23	2.37	2.5	2.43	2.53	2.52
Median increase	2.17	2.13	2.33	2.35	2.4	2.1	2	2	2.24	2.17	2.28	2.26	2.25	2.25	2.43	2.53	2.78	2.51	2.28	2.23	2.01	2.18	2.29	2.1	2.14	2.38	2.26	2.29	2.31	2.38	2.26	2.23	2.35	2.5	2.48	2.53	2.49
Variance (uncertainty)	2.05	2.03	2.04	2.09	1.97	2.02	2.09	1.94	2.02	2.14	2.09	2.11	2.13	2.24	2.18	2.17	1.99	2.17	1.96	1.86	1.98	2.1	2.16	2.1	2.15	2.03	1.98	2.24	2.12	2.21	2.2	2.31	2.05	2.44	2.1	2.24	2.22
COST DISTRIBUTION FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS5
Decrease (under -1%)	5.28	5.6	4.85	4.97	5.05	6.15	6.75	7.03	5.55	6.4	6.43	6.49	5.88	5.7	5.93	5.77	5.41	5.07	8.15	5.47	7.99	6.61	6.16	8.23	6.88	4.45	5.83	6.89	6.17	5.94	6.96	7.26	7.36	6.68	5.9	5.62	6.99
Little or no change (-1% to 1%)	20.4	20.41	21.53	20.54	19.89	21.61	24.68	24.56	19.34	19.06	18.96	21.25	20.87	17.1	19.76	16.6	15.65	17.93	18.16	18.47	20.56	20.21	20.95	20.25	22.18	18.15	18.9	19.34	17.63	16.8	18.87	18.59	16.44	17.49	15.06	16.77	15.36
Moderate increase (1.1% to 3%)	39.53	38.04	35.31	35.4	37.59	40.26	39.15	37.31	39.36	36.88	37.97	32.99	33.59	33.03	33.25	30.73	29.47	35.6	35.59	38.57	35.34	37.28	35.59	36.7	35.43	36.97	34.59	34.82	37.05	34.63	33.82	34.78	35.59	33.45	28.89	33.67	31.12
Large increase (3.1% to 5%)	21.89	22.74	24.88	23.76	25.07	22.07	21.04	20.26	22.24	22.4	23.12	22.72	22.95	22.87	23.27	24.09	23.62	25.55	23.86	23.88	20.95	20.68	25.09	21.91	23.59	26.3	26.06	25.88	23.87	27.88	26.68	23.92	26.6	26.14	28.69	28.36	32.33
Very large increase (over 5%)	10.01	10.11	12.13	13.36	12.39	9.92	8.38	10.84	11.3	11.16	11.97	13.63	13.12	13.77	15.68	18.02	22.29	14.23	12.84	10.07	10.84	11.94	10.52	11.06	10.62	11.46	10.97	11.98	11.84	11.69	11.39	12.02	12.37	15.34	13.79	13.87	12.45
UNIT COST OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS2
Average increase	2.47	2.31	2.43	2.36	2.43	2	2.06	2.28	2.39	2.33	2.41	2.41	2.26	2.28	2.31	2.33	2.23	2.4	2.19	2.45	2.51	2.57	2.62	2.6	2.63	2.7	2.85	2.66	2.6	2.79	2.57	2.74	2.87	3.24	3.17	3.14	3.34
Variance	3.35	3.48	3.44	3.74	3.94	3.06	3.53	3.71	3.39	3.8	3.49	3.9	3.81	3.87	3.69	3.65	3.26	3.24	3.26	3.35	3.93	3.76	3.88	4.29	4.03	3.96	3.46	3.94	3.89	3.9	4.29	4.7	4.96	4.69	4.31	4.44	4.54
DIFFUSION INDEX RELATIVE TO NORMAL2
Sales level	-16.3	-15.09	-16.84	-15.9	-14.55	-17.32	-15.41	-16.81	-21.87	-23.1	-25.3	-26.67	-24.03	-25.5	-25.32	-27.41	-27.71	-23.46	-24.9	-22.54	-22.17	-23.21	-23.99	-27.17	-23.28	-25.7	-19.94	-19.53	-15.28	-15.44	-16.65	-20.09	-21.91	-25.44	-21.66	-19.39	-16.87
Profit margin	-24.03	-26.04	-25.62	-23.81	-23.42	-23.65	-22.74	-24.08	-27.03	-28.19	-29.99	-31.25	-27.53	-29.53	-28.2	-30.62	-29.99	-23.73	-25.55	-25.94	-24.48	-26.56	-25.51	-29.18	-27.99	-29.3	-26.19	-25.42	-22.72	-20.89	-21.77	-25.49	-35.47	-26.93	-23.13	-28.52	-29.35
Number of respondents	512	498	395	430	455	390	477	436	435	465	501	435	505	454	367	356	317	277	296	298	307	308	309	338	330	329	308	310	297	307	295	270	234	224	209	197	202
UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED GROWTH (SBU SURVEY)4
Expected growth over the next 12 months4
Sales revenue growth	5.66	5.51	5.35	5.06	5.28	5.35	5.58	5.24	5.17	4.78	4.7	4.55	4.55	4.38	4.01	3.89	3.88	4.42	4.65	5.04	5.26	5	4.36	4.03	3.76	3.94	3.69	4.09	4.3	4.04	3.8	3.87	3.82	3.5	3.69	4.18	3.81
Employment growth	1.29	1.45	1.26	1.48	1.69	2.03	2.36	2.12	1.6	1.07	1.19	1.33	1.26	0.9	1.05	0.95	0.96	1.13	1.42	1.78	1.76	1.84	1.45	1.23	0.84	1.05	0.79	1.31	1.63	1.45	0.95	0.78	0.91	1.11	0.94	0.71	0.47
Unit cost growth (from September 2024)	4.27	4.11	3.89	3.79	3.68	3.44	3.36	3.48	3.63	3.82	3.88	4.03	3.88	3.98	4.02	4.09	3.75	3.28	3.14	3.08	3.1	3.09	3.22	3.69
Selling price growth (from September 2024)	3.11	3.04	3.16	3	2.95	2.62	2.58	2.55	2.68	2.65	2.69	2.52	2.74	2.87	3.04	3.07	2.86	2.64	2.39	2.41	2.4	2.18	2.07	2.14
Uncertainty about growth over the next 12 months4
Sales revenue growth uncertainty	3.57	3.52	3.65	3.59	3.64	3.57	3.72	3.74	3.87	3.86	3.9	3.88	3.8	3.77	3.75	3.74	3.64	3.52	3.71	3.83	3.94	3.87	3.81	3.89	3.9	3.81	3.77	3.79	3.75	3.71	3.76	3.88	4.09	4.23	4.22	4.32	4.16
Employment growth uncertainty	4.26	4.19	4.19	4.27	4.47	4.43	4.35	4.29	4.33	4.37	4.32	4.18	4.24	4.16	4.26	4.32	4.49	4.39	4.41	4.55	4.47	4.3	4.14	4.17	4.42	4.4	4.54	4.12	4.04	4.07	4.14	4.1	4.24	4.17	4.09	4.16	4.29
Unit cost growth uncertainty	1.95	2.03	2.11	2.05	2	1.92	1.94	1.98	2.07	1.98	1.97	1.97	2.11	2.23	2.5	2.42	2.33	2.16	2.2	2.27	2.2	2.16	2.06	2.04
Selling price growth uncertainty	2.08	2.23	2.32	2.24	2.16	2.07	2.05	2.07	2.19	2.05	2	1.91	2.12	2.32	2.58	2.52	2.39	2.36	2.37	2.38	2.24	2.17	2.06	2.02
Realized growth over the past 12 months4
Sales revenue	7.15	5.04	6.17	4.91	3.98	3.48	4.43	3.12	2.6	3.43	3.29	3.53	5.31	3.73	3.99	3.05	3.46	2.41	2.39	3.16	2.01	3.78	5.15	2.97	3.28	3.39	2.36	4.73	4.28	4.03	3.82	2.91	3.97	2.23	3.6	4.84	5.83
Employment	3.91	4.29	1.86	2.54	3.51	1.01	1.22	3.29	2.05	2.15	2.75	1.39	1.8	1.65	2.06	1.93	2.09	2.1	0.79	1.84	2.61	0.38	1.69	2.17	1.88	2.39	2.6	1.65	2.36	2.3	2.5	2.28	3.6	3.59	2.37	1.94	2.85
Unit costs (from July 2024)	4.31	4.27	4.28	3.72	4.18	3.92	3.28	3.91	3.81	4.1	3.72	4.12	3.47	3.48	3.9	4.17	2.71	3.99	3.35	3.41	3.71	3.85	2.95	5.2	4.36	5.67
Selling prices (from July 2024)	3.65	3.33	3.15	2.57	2.81	2.86	2.23	2.11	2.86	2.63	2.07	2.74	2.61	1.63	2.95	2.65	1.43	2.96	2.91	2.12	2.46	2.64	1.39	3.12	3.51	3.05
Excess reallocation rates4
Expected sales reallocation	1.24	1.22	1.23	0.95	1.4	1.62	0.38	1.34	1.19	0.82	1.6	2.19	1.15	2.24	1.48	1.54	3.11	1.49	1.97	0.87	1.67	1.43	1.78	1.81	3.29	1.36	2.77	1.37	2.2	2	2.36	1.16	2.15	1.57	2.38	1.32	3.19
Expected job reallocation	3.84	2.75	2.59	2.81	2.67	2.47	2.25	1.96	1.44	3.36	3.58	2.24	2.39	2.97	3.61	3.22	3.06	3.41	3.08	2.11	2.86	3.03	2.36	2.5	2.76	2.05	3.27	2.3	2.07	2.09	1.97	2.17	2.71	3.65	2.2	2.3	3.2
Realized sales reallocation, 24 months	3.45	3.51	2.96	4.25	5.17	5.06	3.65	5.23	5.51	4.69	4.23	6.18	3.71	6.2	4.91	4.93	6.28	5.54	7.23	3.8	7.36	5.51	4.3	6.04	7.56	6.91	7.1	4.35	5.89	5.54	8.33	5.89	6.05	7.34	7.26	6.8	6.41
Realized job reallocation, 24 months	6.45	4.4	5.33	6.77	5.03	6.79	6.55	5.28	4.78	7.26	5.66	6.41	6.11	6.86	6.31	6.61	6.24	6.11	6.96	5.12	5.49	7.79	4.73	5.51	6.35	5.27	5.52	4.93	4.17	5.56	4.83	4.38	4.51	4.83	5.38	5.65	5.5

Latest reading

Average increase stood at 2.16% in Aug 2026. That is unchanged from Jul 2026 and −0.1 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Oct 2011 to Aug 2026. Source: Atlanta FED (Business Inflation Expectations).

Latest: 2.16%; Aug 2026
vs previous period: 0.0 pp; Jul 2026
vs a year earlier: −0.1 pp

About this data

Frequently asked questions

What does the US Business Inflation Expectations table measure?: It measures monthly unit cost expectations over the next 12 months, past cost changes, and diffusion indices for sales and profit margins reported by businesses in the United States.
How often is the Atlanta Fed BIE survey published and how far back does it go?: The data is published monthly by the Atlanta Fed and series coverage begins in 2011.
Which breakdowns and measures are included in the table?: It includes average and median expected percentage changes, uncertainty variance, breakdown ranges from decreases to very strong increases, and diffusion indices relative to normal for sales and profit margins.
How does this survey differ from other US inflation expectation measures?: Unlike household surveys or bond-market breakeven rates that incorporate risk premiums, this survey captures direct expectations from business price setters in the United States.