US Retail Sales Forecast (CARTS)
US Retail Sales Forecast from the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary.
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices — month-on-month2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Preliminary | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | ||
| Final | 0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | ||
| Constant prices — month-on-month2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Preliminary | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 0.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 1.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | ||
| Final | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 0 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 1.6 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||
| Retail prices2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Retail price index, year-on-year | 3.66 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 4.71 | 3.87 | 3.12 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 1 | 1.19 | 0.98 | 1.15 | 0.64 | 0.24 | 0.25 | -0.3 | -0.58 | -0.21 | 0.33 | 0.82 | 0.45 | -0.12 | -0.72 | -1.01 | -0.56 | 0.52 | 0.42 | |
| BEA price index forecast (2017 = 100) | 122.56 | 121.94 | 121.91 | 123.13 | 122.17 | 121.37 | 119 | 118.85 | 118.96 | 118.76 | 118.44 | 118.61 | 118.24 | 117.92 | 117.89 | 117.59 | 117.61 | 117.69 | 118.06 | 118.02 | 117.77 | 117.33 | 117.26 | 117.25 | 117.47 | 117.63 | 117.6 |
Latest reading
Final stood at 0.6% in Aug 2026. That is +0.6 pp from Jul 2026 and +0.2 pp from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jul 2024 to Aug 2026. Source: Chicago FED Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS).
- Latest
- 0.6%
- Aug 2026
- vs previous period
- +0.6 pp
- Jul 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +0.2 pp
About this data
US Retail Sales Forecast from the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary. The monthly table provides preliminary and final estimates for current-price and constant-price sales since 2024. It forecasts upcoming United States Census Bureau retail data using weekly series.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the US Retail Sales Forecast (CARTS) measure?
- The US Retail Sales Forecast measures expected monthly retail trade activity in the United States using weekly retail series from the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary.
- How often is the data published and how far back does it go?
- It is published monthly by the Chicago Fed with series starting in 2024, providing preliminary releases after month-end and final releases prior to the Census Bureau publication.
- What specific metrics are included in this table?
- The table provides month-on-month current-price sales, constant-price sales, preliminary and final release estimates, and retail price index forecasts.
- How does CARTS relate to official Census Bureau data?
- CARTS forecasts upcoming United States Census Bureau figures, allowing analysts to compare early estimates against official monthly retail data and Bureau of Economic Analysis price forecasts.
