UK composite leading indicator: GDP reference series
UK composite leading indicator: GDP reference series stood at 100.49 in May 2026, according to OECD Short-Term Economic Statistics. It is one of the indicators in the Confidence and leading indicators table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jan 1985 to May 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Confidence and leading indicators table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference series (GDP) | 100.49 | 100.42 | 100.34 | 100.26 | 100.18 | 100.13 | |||||
| Composite leading indicator | 101.38 | 101.14 | 100.86 | 100.61 | 100.43 | 100.36 | 100.39 | 100.48 | 100.58 | 100.66 | |
| Business confidence | 101.45 | 99.62 | 98.21 | 97.86 | 98.32 | 98.89 | 99.34 | 99.42 | 99.37 | 99.03 |
Understanding UK composite leading indicator: GDP reference series
Gross domestic product serves as the underlying benchmark path against which the United Kingdom composite leading indicator evaluates business cycle turning points. Rather than tracking survey sentiment or financial asset prices like neighbouring rows, this reference metric captures the de-trended trajectory of total economic output across the United Kingdom. It strips out the long-term potential growth trend to isolate fluctuations around potential capacity, creating a cyclical baseline. While accompanying table entries monitor early movements in order books, consumer outlook, or equity valuations, this series isolates the actual macroeconomic cycle that those forward-looking indicators seek to anticipate.
Interpreting this index requires distinguishing cyclical deviations from headline volume output changes. Readings above or below the baseline indicate the economy operating relative to its long-term potential path rather than quarter-on-quarter percentage changes in output. Because national accounts undergo routine revisions as later survey returns and administrative data arrive, the historical profile of this reference series shifts retroactively. Comparing the index across adjacent periods illustrates phase momentum, whereas contrasting it with sibling leading indicators reveals whether sentiment measures accurately forecast turning points or merely reflect concurrent economic conditions.
Frequently asked questions
- Why does this reference series differ from standard real gross domestic product figures?
- Standard national accounts report volume totals and growth rates, whereas this series isolates the cyclical component by filtering out the estimated long-term potential trend.
- How does this row relate to the composite leading indicator in the same table?
- The leading indicator is constructed to anticipate cyclical turning points in this specific gross domestic product reference path several months in advance.
- Are historical values of this index subject to revisions?
- Yes, updates to underlying national accounts data and recalculations of the long-term trend line alter past index positions.