UK CLI: production tendency survey component
UK CLI: production tendency survey component stood at 99.78 in Sep 2026, according to OECD Short-Term Economic Statistics. It is one of the indicators in the Confidence and leading indicators table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jan 1985 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Confidence and leading indicators table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite leading indicator | 101.38 | 101.14 | 100.86 | 100.61 | 100.43 | 100.36 | 100.39 | 100.48 | 100.58 | 100.66 | |
| Component: production tendency survey | 99.78 | 99.64 | 99.53 | 99.46 | 99.44 | 99.44 | 99.46 | 99.48 | 99.48 | 99.47 | |
| Component: consumer confidence survey | 100.93 | 100.54 | 100.14 | 99.8 | 99.62 | 99.61 | 99.77 | 100.03 | 100.29 | 100.49 |
Understanding UK CLI: production tendency survey component
Industrial decision-makers complete monthly questionnaires evaluating recent output volumes, order book levels, and inventory positions across the United Kingdom. This component isolates manufacturing activity from the broader composite leading indicator framework, excluding services, construction, and consumer sentiment measures entirely to focus strictly on industrial supply dynamics. Unlike aggregate business indices that pool multiple sectors together, this specific metric reflects only production-oriented expectations, capturing shifts in factory gate momentum before official output statistics are published.
Interpreting these monthly readings requires caution regarding seasonal fluctuations and standard survey adjustments applied to manufacturing schedules. Early estimates undergo periodic methodological alignment to maintain international comparability, meaning historical revisions can occur without altering the underlying industrial direction. Analysts should compare this sub-index against direct output measures rather than consumer expectations, as corporate output plans often diverge from household sentiment during transitional phases of the economic cycle.
Frequently asked questions
- What exact questions do survey respondents answer for the production tendency component?
- Participants assess recent trends in production volumes, current levels of order books, and finished goods inventory stocks.
- Why does this measure exclude service sector activity?
- The index focuses exclusively on industrial and manufacturing momentum to track physical supply-side conditions separately from services.
- How does this series relate to the broader composite leading indicator?
- It serves as one specific weighted input within the wider framework designed to signal macroeconomic turning points ahead of official GDP releases.