UK composite leading indicator
UK composite leading indicator stood at 101.38 in Sep 2026, according to OECD Short-Term Economic Statistics. It is one of the indicators in the Confidence and leading indicators table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jan 1985 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Confidence and leading indicators table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite leading indicator5 | 101.38 | 101.14 | 100.86 | 100.61 | 100.43 | 100.36 | 100.39 | 100.48 | 100.58 | 100.66 | |
| Component: share prices | 100.9 | 100.92 | 100.89 | 100.85 | 100.84 | 100.87 | 100.92 | 101 | 101.03 | 101.02 | |
| Component: short-term interest rate | 98.15 | 98.21 | 98.27 | 98.32 | 98.38 | 98.44 | 98.51 | 98.58 | 98.67 | 98.77 |
Understanding UK composite leading indicator
Macroeconomic turning points across the United Kingdom are captured by this standardised synthesis, combining disparate forward-looking metrics into a single trajectory. Unlike individual component series that monitor narrow sectors such as equities or automotive sales, this aggregate weaves together financial prices, production surveys, and household sentiment. The methodology filters out irregular noise to highlight early signals of economic expansion or contraction before official output metrics are published.
Interpreting this index requires focusing on directional changes and cyclical inflection points rather than absolute levels. Analysts must account for retrospective revisions to component inputs, which can occasionally alter the perceived timing of past turning points. Comparing this metric directly with lagging indicators like quarterly GDP growth is misleading, because the underlying design specifically prioritises anticipation over contemporaneous tracking of economic activity.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the composite leading indicator aim to signal for the United Kingdom economy?
- It is designed to signal potential turning points in economic activity several months before they appear in gross domestic product figures.
- How does this index differ from individual component series in the same table?
- It aggregates multiple financial and survey metrics into a single overarching gauge, whereas sibling rows isolate specific inputs like share prices or interest rates.
- Why might early estimates of this index be subject to revision?
- Initial calculations rely on provisional data for underlying components, which undergo updating as finalised monthly source statistics become available.