US Risk-Neutral Yield 5-Year
US Risk-Neutral Yield 5-Year stood at 4.47% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-neutral expected yield | |||||||||||
| 5-year maturity | 4.47 | 4.1 | 4.01 | 4 | 3.84 | 3.69 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 3.47 | 3.4 | |
| 10-year maturity | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.99 | 3.97 | 3.85 | 3.73 | 3.7 | 3.44 | 3.55 | 3.5 |
Understanding US Risk-Neutral Yield 5-Year
The US Risk-Neutral Yield 5-Year measures the expected average path of short-term interest rates over a five-year horizon, completely removing all term risk premiums and investor compensation for volatility. It captures the pure market consensus regarding where monetary policy will average over the medium term. Unlike shorter risk-neutral tenors, this five-year metric smooths out immediate policy meeting noise to reveal multi-year rate expectations.
Updates occur systematically alongside broader term-structure releases, accompanied by periodic historical model revisions. Analysts evaluate this indicator by tracking broad directional shifts and comparing prevailing levels against historical policy rate averages. This provides an honest depiction of medium-term monetary policy expectations free from term premium distortions.