US Treasury ACM Term Premium
US Treasury term premium and expected yield monthly from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ACM model.
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | 10-2025 | 09-2025 | 08-2025 | 07-2025 | 06-2025 | 05-2025 | 04-2025 | 03-2025 | 02-2025 | 01-2025 | 12-2024 | 11-2024 | 10-2024 | 09-2024 | 08-2024 | 07-2024 | 06-2024 | 05-2024 | 04-2024 | 03-2024 | 02-2024 | 01-2024 | 12-2023 | 11-2023 | 10-2023 | 09-2023 | 08-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Term premium10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-year maturity | 0.07 | 0.1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.01 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0 | -0.11 | -0.19 | -0.4 | -0.39 | -0.26 | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.1 | -0.22 | -0.2 | -0.33 | -0.38 | -0.15 | -0.06 | 0.01 | -0.24 | |
| 2-year maturity | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.01 | -0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.03 | -0.11 | 0.01 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -0.18 | -0.04 | 0.02 | -0.19 | -0.24 | -0.52 | -0.54 | -0.42 | -0.32 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.38 | -0.35 | -0.51 | -0.58 | -0.28 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.46 | |
| 3-year maturity | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | -0 | -0.07 | 0.05 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.16 | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.51 | -0.55 | -0.48 | -0.4 | -0.27 | -0.26 | -0.48 | -0.43 | -0.57 | -0.65 | -0.35 | -0.13 | -0.21 | -0.61 | |
| 4-year maturity | 0.3 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.2 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.12 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | -0.21 | -0.17 | -0.46 | -0.51 | -0.48 | -0.42 | -0.29 | -0.27 | -0.51 | -0.45 | -0.56 | -0.65 | -0.36 | -0.09 | -0.24 | -0.69 | |
| 5-year maturity | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.1 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.17 | 0.18 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.39 | -0.45 | -0.44 | -0.4 | -0.28 | -0.26 | -0.5 | -0.43 | -0.52 | -0.62 | -0.32 | -0.02 | -0.21 | -0.71 | |
| 6-year maturity | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.4 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.24 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.33 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.36 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.47 | -0.38 | -0.46 | -0.57 | -0.25 | 0.06 | -0.16 | -0.69 | |
| 7-year maturity | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 0.5 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.31 | 0.31 | -0.08 | 0 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.32 | -0.31 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.42 | -0.33 | -0.39 | -0.51 | -0.18 | 0.15 | -0.09 | -0.66 | |
| 8-year maturity | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.37 | 0.37 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.21 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.14 | -0.37 | -0.27 | -0.33 | -0.45 | -0.1 | 0.24 | -0.01 | -0.61 | |
| 9-year maturity | 0.7 | 0.77 | 0.45 | 0.6 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.11 | -0.16 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.06 | -0.09 | -0.32 | -0.22 | -0.27 | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.32 | 0.07 | -0.56 | |
| 10-year maturity | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.6 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.74 | 0.59 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.16 | -0.11 | -0.13 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 0 | -0.04 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.21 | -0.34 | 0.05 | 0.4 | 0.15 | -0.51 | |
| Risk-neutral expected yield4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-year maturity | 4.11 | 4.04 | 4.04 | 3.81 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.48 | 3.55 | 3.47 | 3.6 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 4.05 | 4.09 | 3.99 | 4.11 | 4.23 | 4.26 | 4.2 | 4.42 | 4.46 | 4.34 | 4.7 | 4.95 | 5.21 | 5.18 | 5.28 | 5.17 | 5.15 | 5.02 | 5.09 | 5.24 | 5.39 | 5.35 | 5.51 | |
| 2-year maturity | 4.11 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 3.82 | 3.67 | 3.65 | 3.37 | 3.46 | 3.39 | 3.48 | 3.59 | 3.58 | 3.57 | 3.94 | 3.81 | 3.88 | 3.75 | 4.01 | 4.15 | 4.23 | 4.21 | 4.34 | 4.36 | 4.14 | 4.43 | 4.68 | 5.01 | 5.02 | 5.18 | 4.98 | 4.95 | 4.73 | 4.79 | 4.96 | 5.14 | 5.13 | 5.28 | |
| 5-year maturity | 4.09 | 4.01 | 4 | 3.84 | 3.69 | 3.65 | 3.34 | 3.47 | 3.4 | 3.43 | 3.54 | 3.53 | 3.44 | 3.78 | 3.65 | 3.73 | 3.61 | 3.91 | 4.05 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.21 | 4.24 | 3.96 | 4.15 | 4.36 | 4.69 | 4.74 | 4.93 | 4.67 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 4.44 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.78 | 4.9 | |
| 10-year maturity | 4.05 | 3.99 | 3.97 | 3.85 | 3.73 | 3.69 | 3.43 | 3.55 | 3.49 | 3.5 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.5 | 3.77 | 3.66 | 3.73 | 3.63 | 3.88 | 4 | 4.11 | 4.11 | 4.1 | 4.14 | 3.9 | 4.03 | 4.19 | 4.45 | 4.51 | 4.67 | 4.44 | 4.42 | 4.21 | 4.24 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 4.52 | 4.6 | |
| Model-based Treasury yield4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1-year maturity | 4.19 | 4.14 | 4.06 | 3.88 | 3.77 | 3.76 | 3.49 | 3.54 | 3.51 | 3.62 | 3.69 | 3.7 | 3.82 | 4.13 | 3.96 | 4.1 | 3.84 | 4.01 | 4.08 | 4.2 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 4.27 | 3.94 | 4.32 | 4.69 | 5.03 | 5.1 | 5.17 | 4.96 | 4.95 | 4.68 | 4.71 | 5.09 | 5.33 | 5.36 | 5.27 | |
| 2-year maturity | 4.26 | 4.21 | 4.07 | 3.93 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.47 | 3.49 | 3.58 | 3.59 | 3.6 | 3.91 | 3.7 | 3.89 | 3.59 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.19 | 4.23 | 4.16 | 4.12 | 3.62 | 3.89 | 4.26 | 4.68 | 4.82 | 4.98 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.21 | 4.21 | 4.68 | 5.02 | 5.01 | 4.82 | |
| 5-year maturity | 4.48 | 4.44 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 3.92 | 3.5 | 3.79 | 3.71 | 3.58 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.68 | 3.93 | 3.77 | 3.95 | 3.71 | 3.93 | 4.01 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.03 | 4.12 | 3.57 | 3.71 | 3.92 | 4.29 | 4.47 | 4.67 | 4.17 | 4.22 | 3.88 | 3.82 | 4.28 | 4.77 | 4.57 | 4.19 | |
| 10-year maturity | 4.82 | 4.82 | 4.48 | 4.51 | 4.45 | 4.35 | 4.03 | 4.31 | 4.24 | 4.08 | 4.15 | 4.2 | 4.27 | 4.4 | 4.28 | 4.47 | 4.22 | 4.25 | 4.26 | 4.59 | 4.59 | 4.19 | 4.3 | 3.78 | 3.9 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.51 | 4.63 | 4.17 | 4.26 | 4 | 3.91 | 4.43 | 4.95 | 4.67 | 4.09 |
Latest reading
10-year maturity stood at 0.76 %/year in Aug 2026. That is −0.1 pp from Jul 2026 and unchanged from a year earlier. The series on this page is monthly and runs from Jun 1961 to Aug 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia.
- Latest
- 0.76 %/year
- Aug 2026
- vs previous period
- −0.1 pp
- Jul 2026
- vs a year earlier
- 0.0 pp
About this data
US Treasury term premium and expected yield monthly from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ACM model. The series includes term premium, risk-neutral expected yield, and model-based Treasury yield across maturities since 1961. This decomposition clarifies whether changes in long-term yields stem from Fed policy expectations or investor risk premiums. Data is updated monthly for analysts.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the US Treasury ACM term premium and how is it defined?
- The United States Treasury term premium measures the extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term bonds instead of rolling over short-term bills. It is calculated using the Adrian-Crump-Moench model from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- How often is this term premium data published and how far back does it go?
- The data is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and historical series extend back to 1961.
- What main measures and maturities are available in this table?
- The table includes the term premium, risk-neutral expected yield, and model-based Treasury yield across multiple maturities ranging from 1-year to 10-year terms.
- How does the term premium differ from the risk-neutral expected yield?
- The risk-neutral expected yield reflects market expectations for future short-term interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, whereas the term premium represents pure compensation for interest rate risk over the life of the bond.
