US Risk-Neutral Yield 2-Year
US Risk-Neutral Yield 2-Year stood at 4.42% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-neutral expected yield | |||||||||||
| 2-year maturity | 4.42 | 4.11 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 3.82 | 3.67 | 3.65 | 3.37 | 3.46 | 3.39 | |
| 5-year maturity | 4.47 | 4.1 | 4.01 | 4 | 3.84 | 3.69 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 3.47 | 3.4 |
Understanding US Risk-Neutral Yield 2-Year
The US Risk-Neutral Yield 2-Year measures the average expected path of short-term interest rates over a two-year horizon, stripping away all term premiums and duration risk compensation. It reflects pure market expectations for monetary policy actions spanning the multi-year cycle. Unlike longer risk-neutral measures, this two-year horizon focuses squarely on intermediate policy normalization or easing paths without incorporating long-term risk adjustments.
This series is published regularly and is subject to periodic historical data revisions as econometric models are refined. Analysts should read the indicator by focusing on directional trends across successive releases rather than single-period fluctuations. Comparing current readings to historical policy cycles is the most reliable way to assess evolving rate expectations.