US Risk-Neutral Yield 10-Year
US Risk-Neutral Yield 10-Year stood at 4.37% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-neutral expected yield | |||||||||||
| 10-year maturity | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.99 | 3.97 | 3.85 | 3.73 | 3.7 | 3.44 | 3.55 | 3.5 | |
| 1-year maturity | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.04 | 4.04 | 3.81 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.48 | 3.55 | 3.47 |
Understanding US Risk-Neutral Yield 10-Year
The US Risk-Neutral Yield 10-Year measures the theoretical decade-long government borrowing cost extracted by stripping out investor compensation for future bond price volatility. This metric isolates the pure expected path of monetary policy and economic growth over the long horizon, deliberately excluding the term premium that typically rewards investors for holding fixed-income duration risk. Analysts frequently confuse this gauge with actual nominal bond yields, yet it removes the psychological and liquidity buffers embedded in open-market pricing to reveal a baseline expectation of interest rates.
Published regularly following standard financial market intervals, this metric undergoes methodological adjustments when underlying yield curve estimation models are recalibrated by statistical authorities. Because it represents a structural decomposition rather than a raw transactional rate, it exhibits minimal traditional seasonality and avoids calendar-month distortions. When evaluating this series, analysts compare successive daily observations or period averages to track shifts in policy expectations, rendering year-on-year calculations largely redundant for capturing high-frequency sentiment adjustments.