US Risk-Neutral Yield 1-Year
US Risk-Neutral Yield 1-Year stood at 4.27% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-neutral expected yield | |||||||||||
| 1-year maturity | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.04 | 4.04 | 3.81 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.48 | 3.55 | 3.47 | |
| 2-year maturity | 4.42 | 4.11 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 3.82 | 3.67 | 3.65 | 3.37 | 3.46 | 3.39 |
Understanding US Risk-Neutral Yield 1-Year
The US Risk-Neutral Yield 1-Year measures the expected path of short-term interest rates over the upcoming one-year horizon, completely excluding any term premium or risk compensation demanded by investors. It isolates pure monetary policy expectations for the immediate annual cycle. Unlike the total nominal yield or longer risk-neutral tenors, this metric reflects exclusively what the market anticipates for near-term central bank actions.
Regular publication schedules govern this series, with occasional revisions to historical estimates based on model enhancements. Analysts interpret the data by tracking sequential changes across publication cycles to gauge shifting policy expectations. Comparing prevailing levels against historical policy rates provides a clear measure of near-term monetary stance pricing.