US Model Treasury Yield 5-Year
US Model Treasury Yield 5-Year stood at 5.04% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model-based Treasury yield | |||||||||||
| 5-year maturity | 5.04 | 4.48 | 4.44 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 3.92 | 3.5 | 3.79 | 3.71 | |
| 10-year maturity | 5.26 | 4.82 | 4.82 | 4.48 | 4.51 | 4.45 | 4.35 | 4.03 | 4.31 | 4.24 |
Understanding US Model Treasury Yield 5-Year
The US Model Treasury Yield 5-Year gauges the intermediate-term model-fitted borrowing cost for sovereign debt, capturing economic expectations bridging the near-term policy cycle and long-term structural trends. It processes raw yield curve data through econometric frameworks to remove market noise, special collateral effects, and temporary supply-demand mismatches. This series differs from short-term model yields by incorporating medium-range growth and inflation trajectories, while deliberately stopping short of the extended duration risk priced into decade-long instruments.
Released on a regular high-frequency schedule, the data may experience minor historical revisions whenever the underlying term structure model parameters are updated by researchers. It displays no intrinsic seasonality, allowing analysts to examine uninterrupted trends driven by macroeconomic fundamentals. Monitoring successive period changes provides the clearest read on shifting market consensus regarding the medium-term economic outlook, superseding annual rate comparisons.