US Model Treasury Yield 2-Year
US Model Treasury Yield 2-Year stood at 4.84% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model-based Treasury yield | |||||||||||
| 2-year maturity | 4.84 | 4.26 | 4.21 | 4.07 | 3.93 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.47 | |
| 5-year maturity | 5.04 | 4.48 | 4.44 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 3.92 | 3.5 | 3.79 | 3.71 |
Understanding US Model Treasury Yield 2-Year
The US Model Treasury Yield 2-Year reflects the smoothed econometric benchmark borrowing cost for the two-year sovereign debt horizon, capturing intermediate policy intentions. By applying term structure models, it extracts a clean pricing signal that separates anticipated central bank rate paths from transient market friction and daily liquidity imbalances. Unlike one-year equivalents, this metric incorporates a slightly broader horizon of economic sentiment, while deliberately omitting the deep cyclical risks and structural inflation premia attached to decade-long debt.
Published in alignment with regular financial market schedules, the series is subject to periodic model recalibrations that refine historical estimations without altering the underlying economic concept. It is structurally immune to seasonal calendar effects, given that debt pricing continuously discounts upcoming economic releases. The appropriate analytical approach focuses on sequential period changes to identify turning points in market conviction regarding the near-term economic cycle.