US Model Treasury Yield 10-Year
US Model Treasury Yield 10-Year stood at 5.26% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model-based Treasury yield | |||||||||||
| 10-year maturity | 5.26 | 4.82 | 4.82 | 4.48 | 4.51 | 4.45 | 4.35 | 4.03 | 4.31 | 4.24 | |
| 1-year maturity | 4.56 | 4.19 | 4.14 | 4.06 | 3.88 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 3.49 | 3.54 | 3.51 |
Understanding US Model Treasury Yield 10-Year
The US Model Treasury Yield 10-Year tracks the econometric benchmark borrowing cost for long-term sovereign debt, establishing a foundational reference point for global capital markets. It employs structural curve-fitting techniques to synthesize raw market prices into a smooth trajectory, filtering out transient liquidity disruptions and auction-specific anomalies. This measure differs from shorter model yields by fully incorporating long-range structural inflation expectations and multi-year economic growth trajectories, while remaining distinct from pure risk-neutral measures by retaining standard duration compensation.
Updated routinely following financial market closures, the series is subject to methodological updates that occasionally prompt retroactive revisions to the historical database. It is unaffected by traditional seasonal cycles, responding instead to evolving macroeconomic fundamentals and policy announcements. Analysts evaluate sequential changes and moving averages to interpret shifts in long-term investor sentiment, avoiding traditional annual comparisons that obscure high-frequency financial adjustments.