US Model Treasury Yield 1-Year
US Model Treasury Yield 1-Year stood at 4.56% in Sep 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1961 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model-based Treasury yield | |||||||||||
| 1-year maturity | 4.56 | 4.19 | 4.14 | 4.06 | 3.88 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 3.49 | 3.54 | 3.51 | |
| 2-year maturity | 4.84 | 4.26 | 4.21 | 4.07 | 3.93 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.47 |
Understanding US Model Treasury Yield 1-Year
The US Model Treasury Yield 1-Year measures the short-horizon model-smoothed benchmark borrowing cost for sovereign debt, isolating the near-term expectations of monetary policy. It aggregates pricing data across the shortest maturity spectrum while stripping away erratic market micro-noise and temporary liquidity squeezes. This series differs from longer-duration model yields by focusing strictly on immediate policy horizons, excluding structural growth premiums and long-range inflation uncertainties that dominate distant maturities.
Issued on a continuous daily schedule alongside broader term structure updates, this indicator incorporates methodology refinements that can lead to retrospective adjustments in historical series. It experiences no traditional seasonal fluctuations, as short-term debt pricing continuously responds to unfolding macroeconomic news. Analysts monitor successive daily prints and period averages to assess immediate policy shifts, making high-frequency observation far more relevant than conventional twelve-month comparisons.