US Consumer Expectations (Michigan)
US Consumer Expectations (Michigan) stood at 46.3 in Sep 2026, according to FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). It is one of the indicators in the Consumer confidence table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Nov 1952 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consumer confidence table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 51.7 | 55.2 | 49.5 | 44.8 | 49.8 | 53.3 | 56.6 | 56.4 | 52.9 | ||
| Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 51.5 | 55.4 | 50.7 | 44.1 | 48.1 | 51.7 | 56.6 | 57 | 54.6 | |
| Current Economic Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 54.8 | 47.7 | 45.8 | 52.5 | 55.8 | 56.6 | 55.4 | 50.4 |
Understanding US Consumer Expectations (Michigan)
Consumer expectations aggregate the forward-looking perceptions of US households, encompassing personal financial prospects and how they envision economic developments over the surveyed time horizons. The indicator measures confidence and projections, rather than expert forecasts or definitive economic outcomes. Unlike the current conditions section, which emphasizes presently experienced circumstances, this component is susceptible to shifts driven by incoming information on employment, income, prices, and looming risks; it also represents only one part of the overall sentiment index.
A downward step should be understood as respondents becoming more reserved, not as direct evidence that consumption or growth has declined. Month-on-month comparisons help detect rapid reactions to news and policies, whereas year-on-year comparisons smooth out the influence of holiday schedules and seasonal patterns. Monthly figures may fluctuate due to survey sample composition, and the most recent results are subject to revision. When expectations weaken while current assessments remain resilient, that gap is often more worthy of tracking than the index level in isolation.
Frequently asked questions
- Do low expectations reliably predict a recession?
- No. This is a signal of forward-looking sentiment and must be cross-checked against employment, income, credit, and spending activity.
- Why might expectations drop while current conditions remain good?
- Consumers may be satisfied with their current circumstances but concerned about prices, employment, or income in the future.
- Should one prioritize month-on-month or year-on-year comparisons?
- Month-on-month comparisons are sensitive to recent changes, while year-on-year comparisons are more suitable for mitigating seasonal effects and holiday schedules.