US 1-Year Household Inflation Expectations
US 1-Year Household Inflation Expectations stood at 4% in Aug 2026, according to FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). It is one of the indicators in the Consumer confidence table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jan 1978 to Aug 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consumer confidence table
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | 11-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Households) | 4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | |
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 51.7 | 55.2 | 49.5 | 44.8 | 49.8 | 53.3 | 56.6 | 56.4 | 52.9 | 51 |
Understanding US 1-Year Household Inflation Expectations
Household inflation expectations indicate how US consumers project price levels to change over the coming year. The figure stems from survey responses and is typically summarized by the central tendency of the forecast distribution, meaning it is not observed inflation, a policy target, or a break-even rate derived from financial markets. It differs from the sentiment indicators in the same table as it measures a specific price expectation rather than synthesizing feelings regarding personal finances and the economy.
It is necessary to distinguish changes in expectations from ongoing price changes: gasoline prices, food, or prominent news items can cause survey responses to fluctuate sharply even if core inflation trends remain stable. Month-on-month comparisons are useful for identifying perceptual shocks, whereas multi-month series and year-on-year comparisons help avoid over-concluding from a short-lived fluctuation. The latest figures may be revised after the initial release. When comparing against market-based measures, it should be noted that market measures also incorporate risk and liquidity premiums, whereas the survey directly reflects household confidence.
Frequently asked questions
- Is inflation expectations an official forecast of actual inflation?
- No. This is consumer estimation and can diverge significantly from subsequent price outcomes.
- Why can gasoline prices cause the metric to fluctuate sharply?
- Gasoline prices are easily observable and frequently paid, so changes in them can heavily influence perceptions of prices overall.
- How does the survey metric differ from break-even inflation expectations?
- The survey records household responses, whereas break-even rates are derived from asset prices and are additionally influenced by risk premiums and liquidity.