US Implied policy interest rate Index
US Implied policy interest rate Index stood at 5.11% on Oct 9, 2026, according to San Francisco FED. It is one of the indicators in the News sentiment and implied interest rate table (Value · Daily), with a complete series running from Jun 4, 1976 to Oct 9, 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the News sentiment and implied interest rate table
| Indicator | 09-10-2026 | 02-10-2026 | 25-09-2026 | 18-09-2026 | 11-09-2026 | 04-09-2026 | 28-08-2026 | 21-08-2026 | 14-08-2026 | 07-08-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rate (Weekly) | |||||||||||
| Implied policy interest rate | 5.11 | 5.14 | 5.12 | 5.03 | 4.67 | 4.59 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 4.46 | 4.52 | |
| Real federal funds interest rate | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.7 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.63 |
Understanding US Implied policy interest rate Index
The United States Implied policy interest rate Index measures the expected trajectory of central bank borrowing costs derived directly from financial derivatives and forward-looking market pricing. It captures future monetary policy expectations as priced by institutional investors in interest rate futures, deliberately excluding analyst commentary, survey forecasts, and discretionary economic predictions. This indicator is distinct from realized lending rates because it reflects anticipated adjustments to official policy rather than current borrowing conditions.
Updated continuously and reported at regular intervals, the index experiences frequent revisions as market sentiment and incoming macroeconomic data alter traders' expectations for monetary policy. Because market pricing can overreact to incoming data releases or short-term liquidity shocks, the most accurate way to interpret the series is by observing sustained directional shifts across multiple pricing cycles. While standard calendar seasonality is minimal, the rhythm of the index closely follows the schedule of central bank communications and major inflation data drops.