US Expectations Index (1985=100)
US Expectations Index (1985=100) stood at 63.6 in Sep 2026. It is one of the indicators in the Consumer confidence (Conference Board) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Dec 2009 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Consumer confidence (Conference Board) table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) | 81.9 | 88.6 | 90.2 | 92.2 | 90.6 | 93.8 | 92.2 | 91 | 89 | 94.2 | |
| Expectations Index | 63.6 | 69.5 | 74 | 74.7 | 71.4 | 73.4 | 71 | 72.6 | 67.2 | 74.6 | |
| Present Situation Index | 109.3 | 117.2 | 114.4 | 118.5 | 119.4 | 124.4 | 124.1 | 118.7 | 121.8 | 123.6 |
Understanding US Expectations Index (1985=100)
The expectations component records consumer views on business conditions, employment, and income in the near future. Its content focuses on potential outcomes rather than expert forecasts and does not guarantee that spending behavior will follow suit. Compared to the present situation index, this series is generally more sensitive to news and emerging risks; compared to the aggregate index, it isolates the forward-looking perspective.
Monthly fluctuations should be viewed as shifts in the survey's sentiment balance and should not be interpreted as recession probabilities or income growth rates. Month-on-month comparisons indicate whether expectations have recently improved or worsened, while multi-period evaluations help avoid conclusions driven by transient reactions to fuel prices, interest rates, or financial markets. Year-on-year comparisons are useful when holiday schedules and shopping seasons affect sentiment. If expectations decline while current assessments remain firm, that gap is typically more noteworthy than the score level alone.
Frequently asked questions
- Is the expectations index an official economic forecast?
- No. It aggregates household opinions and can shift rapidly based on incoming information.
- Why do expectations decline even though current conditions remain strong?
- Consumers may be satisfied with their present circumstances while worrying that jobs, income, or business conditions will weaken ahead.
- Should priority be given to the index level or the trend?
- Multi-month trends and the gap with the present situation component usually provide more context than a standalone score.