US Effective federal funds interest rate - 99th percentile
US Effective federal funds interest rate - 99th percentile stood at 3.89% on Oct 15, 2026, according to Office of Financial Research (Short-term Funding Monitor). It is one of the indicators in the Overnight interest rate distribution table (Value · Daily), with a complete series running from Mar 1, 2016 to Oct 15, 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Overnight interest rate distribution table
| Indicator | 15-10-2026 | 14-10-2026 | 13-10-2026 | 09-10-2026 | 08-10-2026 | 07-10-2026 | 06-10-2026 | 05-10-2026 | 02-10-2026 | 01-10-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective federal funds interest rate (EFFR) | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | |
| Effective federal funds interest rate - 99th percentile | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.89 | 3.89 | |
| Effective federal funds interest rate - 1st percentile | 3.85 | 3.8 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
Understanding US Effective federal funds interest rate - 99th percentile
The US Effective federal funds interest rate - 99th percentile maps the extreme right tail of unsecured overnight interbank borrowing costs, isolating transactions executed at the highest rates in the federal funds market. It captures stress points where specific institutions face severe short-term funding pressures or rely on higher-cost accommodations to square their daily positions. This series stands apart from median indicators and lower percentiles by explicitly exposing the upper limit of market dispersion and systemic friction.
Published daily on each business day without routine revisions, this metric must be read by tracking its daily spread and behavior relative to policy targets rather than relying on month-on-month or year-on-year metrics. Although underlying seasonality is minimal, spikes in the upper tail frequently occur during periods of market volatility, monetary policy transitions, or acute year-end and quarter-end balance sheet contractions.