US 10-Year Model-Based Yield
US 10-Year Model-Based Yield stood at 5.07% on Oct 15, 2026, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premia. It is one of the indicators in the Daily Treasury term premium (ACM) table (Value · Daily), with a complete series running from Jun 14, 1961 to Oct 15, 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Daily Treasury term premium (ACM) table
| Indicator | 15-10-2026 | 14-10-2026 | 13-10-2026 | 09-10-2026 | 08-10-2026 | 07-10-2026 | 06-10-2026 | 05-10-2026 | 02-10-2026 | 01-10-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model-Based Treasury Yield | |||||||||||
| 10-Year Maturity | 5.07 | 5.17 | 5.19 | 5.23 | 5.22 | 5.27 | 5.25 | 5.29 | 5.25 | 5.22 |
Understanding US 10-Year Model-Based Yield
The US 10-Year Model-Based Yield captures the theoretical ten-year government borrowing cost estimated through term structure modeling frameworks. It combines the modeled expectation of future policy rates with the specific ten-year term premium, generating a smoothed benchmark rate. Unlike broad curve models, this series hones in on the ten-year tenor, and unlike raw market yields, it smooths out idiosyncratic trading anomalies using structural estimation.
Published daily, the indicator contains no seasonal components and maintains a fixed historical record without revisions. Analysts read the series by monitoring continuous directional changes and structural deviations from raw market rates across trading sessions, rather than utilizing standard period-over-period calendar comparisons.