How does this spread differ from the ten-year minus two-year spread?

It utilizes the short three-month end, which is more sensitive to current monetary conditions, instead of the two-year maturity which carries many future expectations.

Why might the spread widen even when the ten-year yield is unchanged?

If three-month interest rates fall while the ten-year point remains static, the subtraction will still produce a wider spread.

Is a negative value a definitive forecast of a recession?

No. This is a curve signal that needs to be assessed alongside the persistence of the condition and other economic data.

US 10-Year and 3-Month Government Bond Yield Spread

Name: US 10-Year and 3-Month Government Bond Yield Spread
Creator: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

US 10-Year and 3-Month Government Bond Yield Spread stood at 0.83% on Oct 16, 2026, according to FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). It is one of the indicators in the Government bond yields table (Value · Daily), with a complete series running from Jan 4, 1982 to Oct 16, 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)Last updated: Oct 16, 2026, 22:33 UTCCurated by Bui Thanh Phuc

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This indicator in the Government bond yields table

Indicator	16-10-2026	15-10-2026	14-10-2026	13-10-2026	09-10-2026	08-10-2026	07-10-2026	06-10-2026	05-10-2026	02-10-2026
Yield Spread
10-year minus 3-month	0.83	0.82	0.91	0.95	0.99	0.99	1.06	1.06	1.09	1.09
10-year minus 2-year	0.35	0.33	0.37	0.42	0.44	0.47	0.51	0.48	0.47	0.45

Understanding US 10-Year and 3-Month Government Bond Yield Spread

This metric subtracts the three-month treasury bill interest rate from the ten-year government yield, connecting the ultra-short end to the longer segment of the curve. It captures the yield compensation for extending duration from several months to a decade, rather than the return of a specific trading strategy. Compared to the ten-to-two-year spread, the three-month component mirrors current monetary conditions more closely, meaning the two measures can flash contrasting signals during identical phases.

When the spread widens or narrows, isolate the movement of the ten-year yield from the three-month interest rate prior to interpretation. Daily calculations render the series sensitive to trading calendars, pre-holiday sessions, and component-specific update timings, meaning short-term anomalies warrant verification against neighbouring sessions. Comparing against the immediate prior period helps detect fresh responses, whereas multi-session trends should govern curve shape assessments. Negative values merely describe the relationship between these two maturities at that specific juncture, guaranteeing no specific macroeconomic outcome.

Frequently asked questions

How does this spread differ from the ten-year minus two-year spread?: It utilizes the short three-month end, which is more sensitive to current monetary conditions, instead of the two-year maturity which carries many future expectations.
Why might the spread widen even when the ten-year yield is unchanged?: If three-month interest rates fall while the ten-year point remains static, the subtraction will still produce a wider spread.
Is a negative value a definitive forecast of a recession?: No. This is a curve signal that needs to be assessed alongside the persistence of the condition and other economic data.