What does a negative spread indicate?

It indicates that the two-year yield is higher than the ten-year yield at the time of observation, meaning that segment of the curve is inverted.

Does a narrowing spread mean the ten-year yield is falling?

No. The spread can also narrow because the two-year yield is rising faster, even if the ten-year yield is going up.

Is a single day of inversion enough to draw economic conclusions?

Probably not. Reliable signals require the condition to persist and be reviewed alongside other financial conditions.

US 10-Year and 2-Year Government Bond Yield Spread

Name: US 10-Year and 2-Year Government Bond Yield Spread
Creator: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

US 10-Year and 2-Year Government Bond Yield Spread stood at 0.35% on Oct 16, 2026, according to FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). It is one of the indicators in the Government bond yields table (Value · Daily), with a complete series running from Jun 1, 1976 to Oct 16, 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)Last updated: Oct 16, 2026, 22:33 UTCCurated by Bui Thanh Phuc

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This indicator in the Government bond yields table

Indicator	16-10-2026	15-10-2026	14-10-2026	13-10-2026	09-10-2026	08-10-2026	07-10-2026	06-10-2026	05-10-2026	02-10-2026
Yield Spread
10-year minus 2-year	0.35	0.33	0.37	0.42	0.44	0.47	0.51	0.48	0.47	0.45
10-year minus 3-month	0.83	0.82	0.91	0.95	0.99	0.99	1.06	1.06	1.09	1.09

Understanding US 10-Year and 2-Year Government Bond Yield Spread

This spread is calculated by subtracting the two-year government yield from the ten-year government yield, thereby measuring the slope between the medium-term and longer segments of the curve rather than absolute interest rate levels. A positive value indicates the ten-year point exceeds the two-year point; a negative value denotes curve inversion across this span. Unlike individual yield metrics in the table, the spread can narrow even if both yields rise, provided the two-year yield increases at a faster pace.

Proper interpretation requires observing individual components simultaneously to determine whether changes originate from the short end, the long end, or both. Comparing with the prior session suits tracking curve reactions to new news, while economic signals are best derived from prolonged trends rather than a single day of inversion. This indicator is typically expressed in percentage points; when describing changes, distinguish percentage points from relative percentages. Variations in pricing cut-off times, holidays, or revised data can trigger slight recalculations of the spread.

Frequently asked questions

What does a negative spread indicate?: It indicates that the two-year yield is higher than the ten-year yield at the time of observation, meaning that segment of the curve is inverted.
Does a narrowing spread mean the ten-year yield is falling?: No. The spread can also narrow because the two-year yield is rising faster, even if the ten-year yield is going up.
Is a single day of inversion enough to draw economic conclusions?: Probably not. Reliable signals require the condition to persist and be reviewed alongside other financial conditions.