UK conflict supply chain concerns: wholesale & retail
UK conflict supply chain concerns: wholesale & retail stood at 35.1% in Aug 2026, according to ONS — Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS). It is one of the indicators in the Exporting, importing and US tariffs (BICS) table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Aug 2024 to Aug 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the Exporting, importing and US tariffs (BICS) table
| Indicator | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 11-2025 | 08-2025 | 05-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concerned about international conflict | |||||||||||
| Wholesale & retail trade | 35.1 | 32.6 | 26.6 | 34.5 | 34.9 | 37.4 | 39.4 | 15.6 | 17.1 | 23.1 | |
| Transportation & storage | 32.2 | 10.6 | 22.5 | 20.1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 29.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 12.2 |
Understanding UK conflict supply chain concerns: wholesale & retail
Merchants, retail chains, and wholesale distributors operating across the United Kingdom evaluate the disruption foreign conflicts inflict on their merchandise pipelines and inventory replenishment schedules. This indicator captures businesses moving consumer goods, groceries, apparel, and industrial supplies through domestic distribution networks, measuring their vulnerability to international shipping blockages. Financial services, primary agriculture, and heavy manufacturing are omitted, isolating enterprises whose primary commercial activity involves buying goods for resale.
Interpreting these figures requires accounting for intense seasonal inventory accumulation ahead of major retail holidays, which can amplify or mask underlying supply chain anxieties. Analysts should cross-reference monthly survey movements with retail sales volumes and import statistics to verify whether reported concerns translate into actual stock shortages on shelves. Comparisons with transportation providers illustrate the downstream versus upstream perspectives on the same logistical bottlenecks. Users should remember that wholesalers and retailers often absorb initial cost shocks before passing price increases onto end consumers.
Frequently asked questions
- Does this measure cover both online-only retailers and physical high-street shops?
- Yes, all retail and wholesale trade models operating within the designated geographic scope are included.
- How do overseas conflicts impact retail supply chains specifically?
- By delaying container shipments, driving up ocean freight rates, and causing stockouts of imported consumer goods.
- Why is seasonality particularly important for this merchant category?
- Retailers build inventories heavily ahead of autumn and winter shopping periods, distorting standard monthly comparisons.