Japan Credit-to-GDP Gap and Debt Service
Early-warning indicators of financial stress for Japan computed by the BIS: the credit-to-GDP ratio of the private non-financial sector, its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter) and the gap between the two, used as a guide for the countercyclical capital buffer; and debt service ratios — interest and principal payments as a share of income — of households, non-financial corporations and the whole private non-financial sector.
| Indicator | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | Q1-2024 | Q4-2023 | Q3-2023 | Q2-2023 | Q1-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit-to-GDP gap, private non-financial sector3 | ||||||||||||||
| Credit-to-GDP ratio | 173.73 | 173.45 | 171.27 | 170.06 | 170.99 | 173.22 | 172.17 | 174.4 | 174.73 | 174.52 | 175.05 | 175.98 | 177.19 | |
| Long-run trend of the credit-to-GDP ratio | 168.06 | 167.57 | 167.09 | 166.71 | 166.38 | 165.99 | 165.45 | 164.96 | 164.33 | 163.65 | 162.97 | 162.24 | 161.43 | |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | 5.67 | 5.87 | 4.18 | 3.35 | 4.61 | 7.23 | 6.72 | 9.44 | 10.4 | 10.87 | 12.08 | 13.74 | 15.76 | |
| Debt service ratio3 | ||||||||||||||
| Private non-financial sector | 15.5 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15 | 15 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 15 | 15.1 | 15 | 14.9 | 15 | 15.1 | |
| Households and NPISHs | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | |
| Non-financial corporations | 32.5 | 32.3 | 31.7 | 31.2 | 31.3 | 31.7 | 31.1 | 31.2 | 30.8 | 30.6 | 30.9 | 31.5 | 32.4 |
Latest reading
The latest reading is 5.67 Percentage points, for Q1 2026. That is −0.2 Percentage points from Q4 2025 and +1.06 Percentage points from a year earlier. The series on this page is quarterly and runs from Q4 1974 to Q1 2026. Source: BIS – Bank for International Settlements (data.bis.org).
- Latest
- 5.67 Percentage points
- Q1 2026
- vs previous period
- −0.2 Percentage points
- Q4 2025
- vs a year earlier
- +1.06 Percentage points
About this data
Early-warning indicators of financial stress for Japan computed by the BIS: the credit-to-GDP ratio of the private non-financial sector, its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter) and the gap between the two, used as a guide for the countercyclical capital buffer; and debt service ratios — interest and principal payments as a share of income — of households, non-financial corporations and the whole private non-financial sector.
