Tracking the US economy weekly
GDP arrives a month after the quarter ends. Four indicators try to fill the gap with weekly or daily readings, and each buys its timeliness with a different compromise.
At a glance
| Measure | Latest | Period | Published by | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Economic Index (WEI) | 3.03% | Sep 19, 2026 | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas | Weekly |
| ADS Business Conditions Index | −0 Standard deviations | Sep 19, 2026 | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | Daily |
| CARTS weekly retail sales | 629,178.7 USD million | Aug 28, 2026 | US Census Bureau | Weekly |
| Initial jobless claims | 197,000 Persons | Sep 19, 2026 | Department of Labor | Weekly |
How each one is built
- Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
- Method: Ten weekly series scaled to match four-quarter GDP growth
- Covers: Retail, labour and production indicators; reads as an annualised growth rate
- Released: Thursday
- ADS Business Conditions Index
- Method: Mixed-frequency model blending daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly inputs
- Covers: Zero = average conditions; revised continuously as data arrive
- Released: Updated as inputs arrive
- CARTS weekly retail sales
- Method: Advance estimate of retail and food services sales from third-party transaction data
- Covers: Retail only, national
- Released: Within about two weeks
- Initial jobless claims
- Method: Administrative count of new unemployment insurance filings
- Covers: The oldest and cleanest weekly series — a count, not an estimate
- Released: Thursday, for the week ending Saturday
What you give up for speed
The WEI and the ADS index are model constructs. They combine series that were never designed to be read together, and they revise — the ADS index in particular is rewritten every time a new monthly input lands, so the value you quoted last week may no longer exist. Anyone citing a level must say which vintage they used.
Initial claims revise far less, because they are a count of filings rather than an estimate. Their weakness is the opposite: they are noisy week to week and are distorted by holidays, seasonal factors and state-level administrative changes. The four-week average exists for exactly that reason.
Which one to use
For a single number that maps onto GDP growth, use the WEI — it is scaled so that a reading of 2 corresponds roughly to 2% four-quarter GDP growth, which no other weekly series offers.
For turning points, watch initial claims and the four-week average. They are the earliest hard data on the labour market, they do not depend on anyone’s model, and every US recession has been preceded by a sustained rise in them.
Use CARTS for consumer spending specifically, and remember it covers retail alone — services, which are most of US consumption, are not in it.
Frequently asked questions
- How should I read the Weekly Economic Index?
- It is scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, so a value of 2 corresponds roughly to 2% year-on-year GDP growth. It is not a level of output.
- Why does the ADS index keep changing?
- It is a mixed-frequency model that re-estimates the whole history whenever a new input arrives, so past values are revised continuously.
- Are initial jobless claims revised?
- The prior week is revised once, usually by a small amount, when states report final counts. Older weeks are stable.
- What does CARTS not cover?
- Services spending. It covers retail and food services only, which is under half of US personal consumption.
